EWP Blog

This morning iin the TX panhandle there was an existing west-east line of thunderstorms stretched across the northern portion of the LBB CWA. A warm front was aligned SW-NE across the AMA CWA, with a dryline across the southern panhandle and a nice dryline bulge south of the CWA.

CI has tended to be more of a “now”cast as opposed to a forecast.

By the time the CI was high, convection was already ongoing in that area. More frequent satellite data would definitely help in these rapid development situations!

CI from 1825z (image 1) showed an 83% probability of development. Showers first reached 35+ dBz at 1843Z, 18 minutes later over Texas County, OK (image 2).

Lynford

Water vapor imagery early this afternoon is showing a deep closed upper low over CA with broad southwesterly flow across the southern plains with a weak disturbance moving through the flow which seems to be enhancing/sustaining convection moving through the western portion of the forecast area. Visible imagery shows well the ongoing convection as well as a boundary situated across KS southwestward into the OK/TX panhandle.

A quick look at the GOES-R CAPE showed values generally in the 1000-1500 J/kg except along the Red River where lower values were shown below 1000 J/kg.  There definitely appears to be some influence of cirrus and mid level clouds associated with the ongoing convection affecting the output.

Comparing the GOES-R CAPE to the SPC mesoanalysis mixed layer CAPE it appears the values are too low, especially in the Red River area where values close to 2000 J/kg were noted.

The continued moist southeasterly flow into the region today south of the ongoing convection should interact with outflow boundary from ongoing convection and initiate new convection across the southern portion of the forecast area.

Jack Bauer

While we were writing up a previous blog post, we noticed rapid increase in the ProbSevere for a storm to the west of the OUN radar. The ProbSevere quickly ramped up from 9% to 94% as seen in the two images below.

Seeing that rapid increase was noticeable to both of us as were were typing up other blog posts and prompted us the interrogate the radar data. While the core looked small initially, the idea shown by the ProbSevere was right on.

Finally, with the location of the cell being right under the clouds from upstream convection (see image below), it led to N/A values on the satellite data.

-SRF

More CG strikes show up in the NLDN than the ENTLN. First image is areal view. 2nd image is close up of Floyd County TX at 1830z.

Lynford

We are tasked with assessing the pGLM and GOES-R/UAH CI products. A very moist and unstable atmosphere is present over much of the LUB CWA with an ongoing MCS exiting the northeastern portions of the CWA. GOES-R/CIMSS layer CAPE values range 400-500 J/KG for the northwestern portions to 1200-1400 J/kg for southeastern portions. PWATs also possessed a sharp moisture gradient from NW to SE, with values near 0.60″ NW to 1.40″ SE, along with dewpoints in the mid 60s building across southern half of the CWA ahead of the eastward moving MCS.

RAP13 forecast sounding centered just south of Lubbock around 18Z indicated MLCAPE around 1600 J/KG, fairly close to the GOES layer CAPE values. Freezing level and -20 C heights are around 20k ft with modest moisture in hail region, though very moist low levels will help overcome some drying aloft. Expect large hail and damaging wind gusts to be an issue with any discrete cells, as well as isolated tornadoes possible due to modest low level shear/helicity. Will monitor CI for possible development south of LUB/ongoing MCS in hopes of catching pGLM/lightning jump with storms as they develop.

Brick Tamland

Around 1800 UTC, a MCS is going across the southeastern portion of our CWA.  We expect this region to remain stable in the wake of this system as it progresses eastward along the Red River Valley.  Central and western parts of the CWA have seen ample sunshine.  A dry punch is visible moving in from the southwest, and dewpoints have dropped into the 40s through eastern New Mexico, with low to mid 50s through much of the Texas panhandle.  We expect some additional moisture return, especially through southern parts of the CWA…along with a tightening of the dryline feature.  There is some question to the amount of instability, although GOES LAP algorithm indicates 800-900 J/kg through central and southern parts of the CWA…although with heavy clouds in the region, it’s difficult to gage the accuracy of the values.  A 500 mb low is centered over central California, with southwest flow over west Texas.  Any subtle wave or ripple in this flow may be enough to trigger high based convection along the dryline feature.  The 12 UTC AMA RAOB indicates mainly unidirectional flow through the column.

As we were spinning up with the OUN CWA, we received word that the KFDR radar has went down and technicians are on their way to fix it. Looking at the latest radar (1821Z), the strongest storms were near that area and it will complicate the warning process.

With the surrounding radars seeing the current storms around 15kft, this will be a good opportunity to try out the ENI Lightning Data, both the Thunderstorm Alerts and the Cell Tracking with Time Series. Here is the latest Significant/Dangerous Lightning Alerts for that area at 1832Z.

There are a numerous boxes with the default settings and one of the other groups was going to set a higher threshold, which we will try out shortly.

Finally, taking a look at the cell tracking data, we area able to pick out a couple stronger cells, with one location outputting over 100 flashes on the strongest cell.

-SRF