TORP Assessment in a Western US Case

When examining a TORP case in the western US, there were many detections that occurred along the mountain ranges. However, when “aggressive auto filtering” was turned on, all of these “bad” detections were removed:

Velocity plot with TORP objections. A 20% prob filter was applied to TORP objects, but without aggressive auto filtering there were many detections along the mountain range.
The same velocity plot with TORP objections using a 20% prob filter and aggressive auto filtering. All of the seemingly bad TORP detections were removed.

In AWIPS, one thing that I found useful, at least as someone unfamiliar with the area and its terrain, was loading the HiRes Topo map beneath the TORP detections. I had to increase the line width of the TORP objections, but they displayed well on top of the HiRes Topo map:

TORP objections overlaid on a HiRes Topo map in AWIPS

Here is a signature that caught my eye, a bit of an elongated area of increasing convergence/divergence along a line segment in the northern part of the CWA:

A four panel display with TORP/HiResTopo (upper left), Reflectivity (upper right), DivShear (bottom left), and AzShear (bottom right).

Here is an example of how an AWIPS display looked around the time of a possible tornado. Velocity shows only a weak couplet. TORP had a weak track, but the current probability at the time of the tornado was just 30%.

A velocity plot with a TORP detection and track at the time of a possible tornado report.

I did not have a warning out at the time of the possible tornado (pictured above). But later at 2140z I decided to hoist a warning despite no TORP objection showing up. The same storm was producing weak rotation in velocity further south, and AzShear had a decent signal in those same locations:

Weak rotation in the velocity field at 2140z
AzShear showing weak couplets at 2140z.

In a subsequent scan at 2144z (not pictured) the velocity and AzShear signatures appeared to increase slightly, but TORP still did not have a detection for this area (this even after turning off any QC filters and reducing the probability filter to 10%).

-Orange Lightning

CA Tornado Warning

21:15z: AzShear first caught my attention for an area to watch. Object marker quickly appeared and velocity indicated a very weak area of rotation. Next few scans showed the TORP probability increasing. This resulted in issuance of a tornado warning with ~4 minutes of lead time.

 

Top image: Weak velocity signature.

Middle image: First indication of AzShear picking up on an area and first object marker highlight.

Bottom image: TORP marker in AWIPS when decision to warn was made.

 

Pre-Tornadic Probabilities ahead of Tornado Touchdown near Corning, CA

The highest the TORP probability got was 29% right around a couple minutes before the tornado report came in west of Corning, CA. 10-15 minutes before the tornado report came in, the 10-15 minute pre-tornadic probabilities were in the 39-41% range, possibly highlighting a slightly higher potential for a tornado later on (and it happened!).

Kilometers

A Look at DivShear Pre-Tornadic

A look at DivShear six minutes before the tornado report (2128Z) did show a subtle tornado signature. I did note it in real-time, but it wasn’t clear enough for me to ultimately issue a warning.

UPDATE: SRV was actually the first thing that caught my eye at 2123Z.

-Sidney Crosby

Pre-Tornadic Probabilities

I noticed that when the “Aggressively-Filtered” TORP objects (likely sampling mountain peaks) were displaying the 5,10,15-min tornado probabilities, they would decrease or jump around or increase. In all of the other cases, the probability seemed to only increase with the greater amount of time. Once we finally got a TORP object sampling a real storm off KBBX, the probabilities only increased as you got closer to the 30-minute time frame, matching what I would expect and what I was seeing in all of the other cases.

Kilometers

TORP 5-30 Min Pretornado Probabilities

In the morning supercell case set in OUN CWA, I looked at the pretornado probabilities on the second warning I issued and found it interesting and encouraging that the 5-30 min pretornado probabilities showed increasing values at all 5 min time steps and were higher than the observed Torp probability which added some confidence in the detection and confirmed what I was seeing in the base radar data.

Flash