The Day Convection RGB generally shows weak to moderate convection persisting over eastern, ID. There are occasional new updrafts that develop, but are short-lived. Combining the satellite trends with radar reflectivity generally depict that the severe threat has become isolated over eastern, ID.
The Day Cloud Convection RGB still shows updrafts persisting over eastern, ID. However, the anvils of the existing convection are spreading over the area and potentially inhibiting afternoon surface heating. GLM data has also showed a diminishing trend in activity. Note, the GLM data did not load for the last few frames.
The latest mesoanalysis shows values around 500 J/kg in portions of eastern, ID. However, the NUCAPS modified sounding suggests that this could actually be in excess of 1600 J/kg by sampling a point in southern Fremont county. Therefore, vigorous updrafts are expected to continue as these storms continue to track northeast this afternoon.
At 2120z SFX radar depcited a potentially severe thunderstorm located SW of Pocatello. At this time, nearly 50 dBZ returns were observed in excess of 35kft. The -20C level was approximately 17kft. The MESH readout in ProbSevere showed 1.59″. However, ProbHail was only 55%. This appears to be a case where the ProbHail algorithm was reducing the probability based on the environment despite several aspects that support issuing in warning for severe hail. A warning was issued for this storm at 2101z.