Convective Intensity Continues to Diminish in Eastern, ID

The Day Convection RGB generally shows weak to moderate convection persisting over eastern, ID.  There are occasional new updrafts that develop, but are short-lived.  Combining the satellite trends with radar reflectivity generally depict that the severe threat has become isolated over eastern, ID.

Day Convection RGB loop.


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Convective Intensity Waning across Eastern, ID?

The Day Cloud Convection RGB still shows updrafts persisting over eastern, ID.  However, the anvils of the existing convection are spreading over the area and potentially inhibiting afternoon surface heating.  GLM data has also showed a diminishing trend in activity.   Note, the GLM data did not load for the last few frames.

Flash extent density overlayed on Day Cloud Convection RGB.
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Tall cell in western GGW’s area

Strong updraft in western GGW showed the red colors going over to greens…likely the updraft getting into the warmer stratosphere.

Day cloud phase distinction loop over the area shows a continued strong updraft with gravity waves radiating outward.

Quite a bit of flashes in that cell in GGW.


Upgrade to SVR

Merged AzShear product showing the more organized cell.  Velocity also increasing and can see the SRM on the base tilt below.

Decided to go ahead and upgrade the SPS to a SVR.  PIHCHAT did get a report of “abundant amount of pea-sized hail”.

Switched over to SFX meso products and ran a loop…


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Storms Continue to track Northeast in Eastern, ID

The latest mesoanalysis shows values around 500 J/kg in portions of eastern, ID.  However, the NUCAPS modified sounding suggests that this could actually be in excess of 1600 J/kg by sampling a point in southern Fremont county.  Therefore, vigorous updrafts are expected to continue as these storms continue to track northeast this afternoon.

Latest SPC mesoanalysis of MLCAPE.
NUCAPS modified sounding.
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Triangle SPS

Coordinated with PIH on issuing for a cell that is intensifying.  It will be only in my CWA briefly before heading over to RIW.  Used wording for cell may intensify and penny-sized hail/50 mph winds.

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Stronger Core

Continuing the SVR downstream, as yet another strong core pops up.  Colder cloud on IR and now prob severe is starting to jump up.  Blue color showing ProbHail and ProbWind in the 30s.

Cell also showing more signs of organization in the SRM…better chances for hail.

Also getting a pickup from the DMD (latency issue still for NMDA).


Two Severes ongoing Fergus County

IR imagery from GOES-West shows good updrafts continuing to radiated waves outward from warned storms in Fergus County.

…but ProbSevere continues to run cold.  Unfortunately it will be very tough to verify my warning given the rural nature of the area.

MESH tracks followed nicely the cells in the warning…though primary thought was these were wind producers.  Still seeing very bright TOE on GOES-West with these cells.


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MESH high ProbHail Moderate

At 2120z SFX radar depcited a potentially severe thunderstorm located SW of Pocatello.  At this time, nearly 50 dBZ returns were observed in excess of 35kft.  The -20C level was approximately 17kft.  The MESH readout in ProbSevere showed 1.59″.  However, ProbHail was only 55%.  This appears to be a case where the ProbHail algorithm was reducing the probability based on the environment despite several aspects that support issuing in warning for severe hail.  A warning was issued for this storm at 2101z.

2120z SFX 0.5 radar.
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