Below are a few images for a long-lived storm in Pecos County that is starting to split. The first image shows GLM Event Density with two separate hot spots while the second image shows base reflectivity with ProbSevere contours. It will be interesting to see if/when the ProbSevere tracking algorithm will splits the storm into two storms rather than one merged storm.
Not many lightning strikes going on so far today. Lightning probablility is showing strikes that are occuring. The difference between scale0 and scale1 seems to support the idea that scale 0 might give more specific information over scale one on which storms have the best lightning probabilty. Scale one might be useful for overall early coverage and scale 0 might be a better indicator as more storms develop.
Below is an animation of MRMS radar 0.5 km reflectivity with the experimantal CG lightning probability and NLDN CG overlaid. Notice that the experimental CG lightning probability rises to 58% 14 minutes before the first CG strike detected by NLDN. Probablities increased to 67% 5 minutes before the strike, and 72% approximately 2 minutes before the strike. This has potential significant value for providing lead time to outdoor events. In addition, the National Weather Service in Amarillo recently began experimenting with Aviation Weather Warning for lightning for Rick Husband Airport, and this experimental product could potentially allow the office to provide a better service to aviation customers. Other offices provide lightning warnings to airports and likely could potentially benefit from this. I will be watching this product closely throughout the rest of this experiment to see how much lead time it normally provides and how frequent false alarms are. My first impression is very positive.