Tag: LightningCast

GLM and Lightning Cast

Posted in GLM, LightningCast, ProbSevere, SPG2022 on by Kevin Thiel.

The GLM parallax showed up again Thursday, June 16th, over the PBZ area. This was even more evident than yesterday’s event in WI that was written about in a blog post.  Figure 1 has ProbSevere, LightningCast, GLM Flash Extent Density, and ENTLN data overlaid in a 4-panel.  This case was fairly simple to “self correct” the parallax as the GLM was clearly displaced to the north of ProbSevere (as well as the base reflectivity).  Really once you get a few cases under your belt recognizing the parallax, it’s not too challenging to keep that “self correct” in the back of your mind.  One interesting thing to note about Figure 1 is the storm just outside the PBZ CWA just south of Mount Veron, Ohio (See bottom left in Figure 1).  The ProbSevere and GLM FED are lined up perfectly and this is a great example of utilizing the lower threshold in the colormap. The bullseye shows up much nicer than the larger thresholds in the top two images.

Figure 1: GLM with ProbSevere and LightningCast

– Podium

Observations from BUF on Thursday June 16th

Posted in DSS, GLM, LightningCast, Optical Flow Winds, SPG2022 on by Kevin Thiel.

Optical Flow Wind Storm Top Divergence Can Aid in Warning Operations

The storm of the day produced a 2.5” hail stone near Cato, NY.
Strong storm top divergence signals an intense or intensifying thunderstorm. Matched with upper level radar scans, satellite interrogation (clean IR), and ProbSevere, optical flow wind products may be another tool to aid the warning forecaster and/or storm scale mesoanalysis,  Below are the corresponding optical flow wind storm top divergence images approaching 4 PM EDT (3 PM CDT) when the sig severe hail was reported. The thunderstorm of interest is centered just south of eastern Lake Ontario.

LightningCast as Graphical Messaging/IDSS Tool

As the DSS and graphics person for BUF, I took the opportunity to highlight the utility of LightningCast for Graphical NowCasts and DSS graphics. The fairly broad brushed nature of the lightning probability contours at the timesteps utilized for graphics I think is a positive for a few reasons: they show actionable probabilities (10+, 25+, 50+, 75+) that users can understand; the contours are akin to annotations on a radar graphic, so would be a time saver; and finally, broad brushed is a way to prompt users and partners to seek out more information, like real time zoomed in radar data, perhaps calling or sending us a chat on NWSChat, or even simply keeping an eye on the sky and listening for thunder. The parallax corrected product in the images below I feel would be more useful for graphics of the nature shown below. Ultimately, for operational use, there would probably need to be some work done to ensure they are not confusing to the user and aesthetically pleasing.
Graphical NowCasts for our websites and social media
Graphic for IDSS Event

A Case for the Sharpened GLM FED Color Scale Used this Week

Over the course of satellite product interrogation this week, the GLM FED stood out as one of the most useful products.  Below are examples from in/near the BUF CWA at 2043z and 2047z. Note that the top of the color scale was set to 128 flashes/5 min over the grid point vs. the default 256 flashes/5 min in AWIPS. The FED also paired well with the MFA and TOE on this 4-pane procedure.
The color curve used this week really popped and correlated well with frequent ENTLN detections. Another example below from shortly after 6 PM EDT (2202 and 2207z)  shows that there will be instances where perhaps an even small color bar range would be useful.
While the strongest storm at this time still showed up well on the AWIPS default color bar range, the 128 flashes/5 min top end of the range (top right) helped it pop even more and corresponded well conceptually with the ENTLN cloud flash detections. Furthermore, the thunderstorms to the north of the strongest thunderstorm showed up better from an SA perspective, if you have been focusing on the strongest storm for warning ops. The smallest color bar range on the bottom left further enhances the above described effect.

Addendum: GLM Flashes and a more smoothed FED

The excellent COD NexLab Satellite and Radar page added within the past year the GLM flash centroids to their GOES derived overlays. From an apples to apples perspective with respect to the ground based lightning detection network displays, this may be a useful product to add into AWIPS.
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Addendum 2: Would a more smoothed FED be preferable?

Below are a few web based examples of FED displays.
A case can be made that these smoothed FED examples would be somewhat less obtrusive than the default AWIPS FED display, especially for storm scale interrogation by the warning operator or storm scale mesoanalyst.
– Hurricane84

GLM Parallax and Lightning Cast Fun

Posted in DSS, GLM, LightningCast, SPG2022 on by Kevin Thiel.

The GLM data, specifically the FED data, was used to provide DSS to the Riverfest in La Crosse, WI.  After my first contact with the event POC, I noticed that the FED data was off by roughly a county from the ground-based lightning data.  This was my first time witnessing the parallax issue from the GLM and why ground-based lightning networks are a key component in confirming that the GLM location is accurate. In Figure 1, notice the intense concentration of the lightning just southwest of the event (20 mile and 5 mile radius rings) depicted by the GLM while the ENTLN/NLDN say that concentration is about a county south.   The parallax is evident in other lightning concentrations in and around the event circle.  I know it’s something being worked on to have the GLM data corrected to avoid this parallax issue, but it would be nice to have a map of the locations where the parallax is more evident in case you may not need the corrected version. Obviously, the further north, the larger the parallax, but not quite sure at what latitudes it really starts to show its hand. On a side note, for aviation purposes, the parallax could become problematic if the GLM lightning data is off by a factor of a county or two, especially if re-routing aircraft is occurring.

Figure 1: GLM Flash Extent Density compared with ENTLN data on June 15, 2022.

Figure 2: FED and ENTLN animation showing the GLM parallax.

I utilized the Lightning Cast to provide a probable end time of the lightning threat for the Riverfest event in La Crosse, WI.  This was a valuable tool as it provided some added confidence when the storms would exit the event area.  I did my best to line up the TOA tool with the 25 percentile contour. Once I got my estimated time that the end of the lightning threat would reach the event, then I added about 30 minutes to ensure it was well east of the event circle.

– PODIUM

Can PHS Improve Mesoanalysis and Near Term Convective Forecasts?

Posted in DSS, LightningCast, PHSnMWnABI, ProbSevere, SPG2022 on by Kevin Thiel.

A large portion of the MKX CWA was included in a MDT severe risk, so by the start of the operational period, we had to assess the evolving severe threat spreading in from the west. Meanwhile, our DSS event was the Madison Jazz Festival, which entailed a focus specifically on south central Wisconsin. The PHS CAPE forecast appeared to be a noteworthy improvement from the CAPE fields on the SPC Mesoanalysis, along with the short-term forecast on that page.

Below are the 18z through 20z plots of MUCAPE, MUCIN and effective bulk shear from the SPC Mesoanalysis page.

Compare the above images with 4000 J/kg of uncapped MUCAPE to the PHS MUCAPE initialization at 18z and 2-hour forecasts (19z and 20z) below.

As you can see, while the SPC mesoanalysis was indicating 4,000 J/kg of uncapped MUCAPE, the PHS forecast showed CAPE decreasing across central and south central Wisconsin. This was an important and helpful piece of information for our DSS content for the Madison Jazz Festival.

The Day Cloud Phase RGB images below back up the PHS forecast vs the SPC mesoanalysis, as relatively flat Cu field over our area of interest actually dissipated between 20z and 22z.

Based on the PHS forecast combined with satellite analysis, we were able to focus the convective threat for the Madison area toward 6PM and onward, tied to the stronger forcing and better moisture arriving from the west where the ongoing convection resided closer to the cold front. It appears that the PHS sampling of moisture in the column applied to the near-term forecast strongly outperformed the SPC/RAP Mesoanalysis model background and OA algorithm.

Differences between the LightningCast (LC) CONUS and LC Mesos

Note below the CONUS scale (1st image) and Mesos (Meso Sector 2 on 6/15) had a different depiction of the lightning probability over northeast Iowa at 1911z 22Jun15. This was due to the time for a CONUS GOES-East scan to complete, vs. the much shorter time for a Meso sector, which in turn affects the LightningCast model. This is something to keep in mind when using the product.

ProbSevereV3 Trends for Severe Convection in Western/Southwestern Wisconsin

At 2106z, the ARX office had recently issued a Tornado Warning (2102z) for the northern cell with a high % on PSV3 and PTV3, per the noted superior calibration of the updated model vs. the V2. Could the PSV3 and PTV3 trend on this storm have assisted the radar operator in an increased lead time? As you can see below, starting at 2045z, there was a sharp upward trend in the ProbTor, to near 40% prior to 21z. At the least, this tool appears to be an excellent situational awareness tool, and may even be able to help lead time in some cases. It helped us in the MKX CWA regarding downstream warning issuances. In the event of an unexpected radar outage in a sparse radar coverage area, environmental analysis plus satellite interrogation with the utility of PSv3 could support successful radar warning ops in a less than ideal scenario.

– Hurricane84

Situational Awareness and Lead Time with LightningCast and ProbSevere/Tor

Posted in DSS, LightningCast, PHSnMWnABI, ProbSevere, SPG2022 on by Kevin Thiel.

Today’s experience landed us in MKX monitoring convective development potential across the western portion of the CWA, with a line of storms ultimately moving in from the west, and some risk of discrete cells persisting even after we ceased the experiment.

I took the opportunity today to set up procedures overlaying PHSnABI indices (CAPE) with satellite imagery (e.g. Day/Cloud Phase or Viz), to see how well it corresponded with convective development. Unfortunately I didn’t grab a screenshot, but it was a nifty display that I hope to use again. PHSnABI suggested that CAPE in some areas of the CWA was not as high as the SPC mesoanalysis or RAP suggested. We tried to investigate this using a combination of NUCAPS and model soundings and RAOB, but couldn’t figure out a reason for the CAPE depression before incoming storms grabbed our attention. Notably, the indices derived only from GOES agreed with PHSnABI about this depression, though we couldn’t figure out if it was correct. It seems likely the GOES ABI was driving the PHSnABI result.

My main takeaway the rest of today is how useful ProbSever, ProbTor, and LightningCast can be with approaching/developing convection.

LightningCast, combined with GLM data, was useful for IDSS imagery to depict position and potential of lightning (example DSS slide using these graphics provided below).  Storms never made it to our decision point prior to leaving the experiment, but lightning threat was usefully communicated to the simulated JazzFest event.

As convection developed, we also practiced relying on probSevere and probTor for lead time in anticipating warnings. The following shows an example where the probTor trends corresponded well with ARX’s actual decision to issue a tornado warning.

SImilarly, intensification of the convective line appeared to be well detected. In fact, depending on what threshold of the probSevere parameters is relied on (probably depends on environment and other factors), the escalating value could have given useful lead time for a severe issuance decision.

Although the main mode appeared to be a line of convection, there were positions along the line where tornado risk seemed to increase (evidenced by radar velocity). It was reassuring to see probTor pick up on the gradually increasing risk of tornadoes as well.

And one final note… lightningCast is fairly impressive in how it produces calibrated estimates of lightning occurrence using only a single time step of satellite imagery (though it uses several bands of the ABI). Naturally lightningCast has difficulty where a developing tower is obscured by an anvil overhead, as we saw in this example. But it was neat to see lightningCast immediately respond with a broader swath of high lightning probabilities the very first time that a tower poked above the anvil that previously obscured it.  The fact that it was hidden probably means lightning could have been occurring below the anvil with lower than ideal lightningCast probabilities (though non-zero, to its credit), but it was neat to see the immediate adjustment to the probability contours with new imagery.

– Buzz Lightyear

A Close Look at LightningCast for the Application of DSS or TAF Support

Posted in DSS, LightningCast, SPG2022 on by Kevin Thiel.

On June 15th 2022, a dynamic setup was unfolding across Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin with multiple hazards that NWS forecasters would have had to message and warn. For this case, we were on watch for a DSS event representing the Cranberry Blossom Festival in Wisconsin Rapids in the GRB CWA. The main concerns with the event were lightning and any severe storms, both of which seemed certain for this case and the name of the game was timing the oncoming convection.

LightningCast uses machine learning with numerous satellite inputs that yields the probability of lightning occurring at a location within the next hour. This product immediately jumps to the front of a forecaster’s mind to apply for decision support services (DSS) or assessing lightning probability for airport forecasting. Below is a table showing the probabilities from LightningCast versus the “time of arrival” tool that estimated storm timing based on the movement of storms:

First vicinity lightning strikes (within 10 mi of event): 4:21 PM
Arrival of storms (within 10 mi of event): 4:30 PM
Immediately the usability of this product is fantastic. It shows the probabilities of lightning occurring in a contour format, making it a great pairing with satellite imagery, lightning data, and radar. WIth this case being a very well forced event the main evaluation was the percentages and how they did with the advection of the storms. The LightningCast seemed to ebb and flow with the eastward acceleration and deceleration of the storms between 3 and 3:30 PM, while the next 15 minutes showed accelerating storms, giving a 61% chance of lightning within the next hour at 3:45 PM. With the acceleration of the storms, it was good to see the model adjust, with the 50% threshold being crossed before 3:45 PM. The 50% threshold is very important for forecasters, as values above that are typically  used in several products and gauges of confidence. The LightningCast model giving upwards of 40 minutes of lead time for advecting storms gives me a lot of confidence in the product, leaving me wishing it was already available within our datasets for immediate use.
– aerobeaver

Storm Movement and Severity at TAE

Posted in LightningCast, NUCAPS, PHSnMWnABI, ProbSevere, SPG2022 on by Kevin Thiel.

Down in Tallahassee, there are two boundary layers where storms are initiating or ongoing.  There is a lingering MCS that moved down from the Midwest overnight and a Sea Breeze. You can see the CAPE gradients along the both boundaries and how that progresses forward in time with both the boundaries interacting with one another.

17Z

18Z

19Z

This tracks very well when you overlay the visible satellite imagery with the PHS images as you can see the cumulus field along the CAPE gradient. This gives a good visualization of where storms are initiating along the Sea Breeze and the strongest storm movement along the MCS.
As these two boundaries move closer together they will be moving into a more favorable low level environment. It would be nice to have the Polar Orbiting Satellite NUCAPS sounding data available. This way we could verify lapse rates and what Prob Severe is giving us. While an upper level ridge is in place over the southern CONUS what sounding information we did have early on in the forecast period was very helpful as outside of the storm environment skies were clear. I was able to grab some gridded NUCAPS data that shows the diurnal destabilization of the low levels from 18Z. Now that it is 21Z, that data isn’t as helpful in either a warning or pre convective event because things could have changed drastically in the 3 hrs since the last Polar Orbiter moved through.
After overlaying Prob Severe with the PHS CAPE and Visible Satellite imagery, you can see your strongest storms along the CAPE gradient which tracks well. However, there are differences between Prob Severe Version 2 and Version 3.
A great example of the differences between PSv3 and PSv2 is with one of the strongest storms of the day for the Tallahassee CWA. Version 2 seems to try to highlight a hail threat at 48% while Version 3 has prob severe hail at 6%.  It seems that Version 2 is overestimating the Hail threat for this area. Especially given the subpar mid level lapse rates at 5 C/km or less, storm motion of around 5 kts or less and the upper level subsidence. The storm environment just is not conducive to produce quarter sized or larger hail.
– Cirrus Fields

LightningCast/NUCAPS and Isolated to Scattered Convection in FGF

Posted in GLM, LightningCast, NUCAPS, SPG2022 on by Kevin Thiel.

Convection developed rapidly to the south of the main area of convection in an area of high instability. This was first picked up by higher probabilities in the LightningCast data. There was some rapid cumulus development that was picked up well by the algorithm. Probabilities went well above 75% around 5 minutes or so from the first GLM detection. NUCAPs data indicated MLCAPEs of around 2000 J/Kg in this area supporting the quick upscale growth.

Convection developed rapidly to the south of the main area of convection in an area of high instability. This was first picked up by higher probabilities in the LightningCast data. There was some rapid cumulus development that was picked up well by the algorithm. Probabilities went well above 75% around 5 minutes or so from the first GLM detection. NUCAPs data indicated MLCAPEs of around 2000 J/Kg in this area supporting the quick upscale growth.

LightningCast and GLM at 2131 UTC

DCP RGB and LightningCast  2131 UTC

MRMS -10 Reflectivity and LightningCast first GLM detection at 2135 UTC

So let’s take a look at some NUCAPS soundings as we had three overpasses right before the convection initiated in the above examples.  Here is the first overpass with the sounding point selected with the red arrow:

NUCAPS Sounding at 1823 Z

Not too shabby with a MLCAPE value of 2094 J/kg.  (And why mixed-layer? Hank likes ML because very few times do parcels start at the surface for SB, and MUCAPE is just fun to look at).

The next overpass was 2003 UTC (about an hour and a half after the previous overpass) to see if the environment has changed much:

MLCAPE of 1235.  Hmmmm…that’s quite a drop in MLCAPE compared to previous overpass.  Two things to remember; this is on the edge of the field-of-view (matter of fact, the eastern edge).  Luckily we have a Modified NUCAPS for the same profile point which adjusts the boundary layer:

Yeah, that looks much more reasonable based on observational trends (few clouds to change the mid-atmospheric profile, increasing surface T/Td conditions) with 2185 J/kg MLCAPE.  But wait, there’s more!  We also have a:

NUCAPS AQUA Overpass

This was almost directly under NADIR so we should have much better profile retrieval.  Sure enough, MLCAPE value is almost 3000 J/kg in between the 1823 and 2003 UTC NOAA-20 sounding retrievals.

How does this all tie into the weather for FGF today?  This is what the SPC Mesoanalysis graphics had for 2100 UTC MLCAPE values:

They all combine to increase confidence on what conditions COULD be in areas where the models are saying one thing and an observational system is indicating potential reality (remember, it’s still a remote sensing platform with their own set of issues). In our case, the bulls-eye of 3000 J/kg in east central Minnesota is likely real and needs to be an area to watch…and that is where the Lightning Cast product at the start of our post indicated the potential for new activity to develop.  Pretty cool stuff…

– Marty McFly/Hank Pym

Where is the new convection going up?

Posted in GLM, LightningCast, SPG2022 on by Kevin Thiel.

The GLM can be used to help find where new convection is developing under a cirrus canopy.  Here’s an example of this!

Top left – LightningCast with Day Land Cloud Convection and Flash Extent Density (FED).  Top Right is Minimum Flash Area (MFA). Bottom left is MRMS 1km Reflectivity.

We can see that there are some returns developing in the center of the field of view on the MRMS reflectivity but it is hard to tell whether this is real or not.  Five minutes later, we have this image:

Hmm, that could be new convection developing on the Top Left panel because it looks like there is a tower coming through the cirrus shield.

And then the next frame we have:

And there we go!  Flashes starting to show up so it looks like this area of convection will need to be watched.  (Should also note that it would also be helpful to time match to the GLM 1-minute FED instead of the 5-minute RGB!)

-Hank Pym

Metwatch for Wilmington DSS event

Posted in GLM, LightningCast, NUCAPS, PHSnMWnABI, SPG2022 on by Kevin Thiel.

Metwatch for Wilmington NC started with modified NUCAPS soundings and a comparison with NAM BUFKIT profiles:

Looking at 700mb temperatures, BUFKIT has about 8C for that layer, and here is the gridded NUCAPS 700mb temperature layer. Note: not a lot of advection noted at 700mb, with low level dry advection (not shown)

Watching this cell just outside the CWA pulse and then fall apart…PWV3 never exceeds 4% with this pulse. LightingCast also showed a rapid drop in probabilities.

Not much happened today, but just along the coast was this little area of enhanced CAPE (3000j/kg)…so you’re saying there’s a chance…

Comparison between parallax corrected and uncorrected lightning cast. You can see the image above and to the right (corrected) has some higher percentages getting into the 20 mi range ring compared to the non corrected data which just has the 25% grazing the 20 mi range ring. Having the corrected data could be more beneficial to providing DSS support.

– Mr. Bean

– Noctilucent