After a busy day at ICT, we have come to the conclusion that radar base data is still our #1 when it comes to warning operations, while the other tools are “confidence boosters”. With many (if not all) of the warnings we issued today, there was little doubt that the storms were likely to produce severe weather. The radar base data told us what we needed to know to go ahead and issue the warnings, with things like lightning jumps and prob severe being more of a reassurance. In a lot of cases, the prob severe did not substantially increase until we we already in the process of writing up or had already issued a warning. Take this storm in Ellsworth County, KS for example.

When we decided to issue a SVR for this storm, the prob severe was only 13%. Meanwhile, the base data was pointing towards severe hail.

As the warning was being typed up, the next volume scan came in and the prob severe jumped to 85%. Trends in lightning were also more of an afterthought/confidence booster with regards to subsequent storm intensification.

In cases like today, the supplemental tools did not necessarily add any lead time. We do think tools like prob severe and changes in flash rates would be a bigger help with the warning decision making process in marginal severe environments or pulse storms.

Jack Bauer/V. Darkbloom