Large shortwave trough remains in the western CONUS, putting KFTG CWA in southwest flow. Surface low in western Colorado is bringing upslope flow.

16z GOES LAP stability indices indicate CAPE is increasing in far NE CO where the cloud deck has eroded over the past couple of hours. Clearing has been slow, however, per the super rapid scan visible imagery.

Dew points are in the mid-50s across the Front Range as of 18z, approaching 60F to the east.

KDNR sounding indicates a large cap at about 700mb, but 700-500mb lapse rate is 7.9C/km. EML is at about 700-550mb. 0-6km shear is favorable for rotation/supercells (~40-50 kt) for storms once they actually do fire.

MUCAPE 2000-3000 J/kg, but CIN is still at about 500-750.

Small puffs of cu developing in the mountains, but they have not grown notably over the past hour.

SWODY1 has the FTG CWA in an ENH risk.

Cattywampus & Jason Williams

A complicated convective scenario continues to evolve over western Texas in an area of weak mid level flow where mesoscale features have been the primary driver for storm motion, storm type, and severe weather type.

Severe supercell storms with all severe weather threats continue to move south southeastward across King and Dickens Counties into Kent and Stonewall Counties.  These storms have a history of tornadoes, golfball sized hail, and 80 MPH winds.  This severe threat is expect to persist as these storms move slowly along a region of high theta-E air with dew points in the low to mid 60s.

Recent radar trends show strong mid level rotation continuing in King County…and there is no current reason to believe that this storm will weaken at any point soon.

Because storm mode is expected to be supercellular for at least the next couple of hours and possibly longer…significant severe threats of all modes should be expected in the path of this storm.  In addition to continuing to travel along this boundary of rich theta-E air…NEARCAST products indicate a region of substantial destabilization in the path of this storm.

To the north, in the AMA area, potential for convection continues to be monitored to the north where considerable destabilization is forecast by GOES-Nearcast vertical theta-E difference.  A strong outflow boundary has pushed to the north and west of the LBB area storms… which continues to complicate the convective scenario.  Originally…  deeper convection was noted on the Cloud Top Cooling product…  and though the echo has struggled to develop…  lightning and a severe MESH indicator are now noted within an echo in Potter County.  Convection may continue to increase along the outflow boundary in the next couple of hours…  with hail and wind being the main threats.

To the south, in the Midland CWA, convection developed in areas of higher terrain and drifted slowly to the north-northeast.  The strongest storm at this time is moving into Andrews County.  These storms have been moving slowly to the north over an atmosphere characterized by dry air…and though the MESH product continues to indicate a threat of hail in the strongest storms…a threat of damaging wind will likely be the primary threat until the storms reach higher moisture.

– Sears/McCormick

Morning convection has departed the OUN area… and a cooler outflow air mass is now in place across much of Oklahoma.  Warm, humid air is located to the east of a dryline and to the west of the outflow boundary with dew points approaching the mid 60s all the way to the I27 corridor.  East winds are observed ahead of the dryline on LAPS imagery bringing an upslope component to the surface flow.

Convective initiation has begun to develop in Floyd County TX…  and coverage is expected to increase as the afternoon continues along an axis of rich theta-E air indicated on LAPS imagery stretching from Moore County TX to a maximum in Randall County TX and to the south-southeast towards Jones County TX.

Early convection has been noted to be fairly robust…  with a -17 C/15 minutes cloud top cooling noted with the Floyd County storm and a MESH exceeding 1 inch about 30 minutes later and now with a MESH of 1.73 inches.

OUN WRF indicates a bigger threat of storm splitting which would suggest the main threat to be large hail…  while the 1 KM LAPS shows robust updraft helicity in the Texas panhandle, suggesting risk of tornadoes in the warm sector air just west of and along the outflow boundary.   One brief touchdown was recently reported near Cedar Hill and mid level rotation tracks have noted to be increasing in strength.

Simulated satellite imagery and short term models indicate that convection will develop quickly by 23Z along much of the dry line and moving slowly to the east.  In addition to the hail and tornado threat…  as the line congeals into a convective system in the evening hours…  a wind threat is likely to develop as well.

– Sears/McCormick

A severe threat continues in Oswego and Oneida counties…  where an intense thunderstorm continues to move eastward, and golfball sized hail was recently reported in Central Square.  The storm continue to move into a region of theta-E characterized  by values of greater than 342 K…  and lower dew point depressions near 10 K.

Farther to the south…  dry air continues to dominate much of the southern portion of the BUF CWA and the southwestern portion of the BGM CWA.  Convection has tried to develop throughout the cumulus field throughout the afternoon…  but the substantial convection to this point has been confined to a narrow ribbon of moisture rich air just south of Lake Ontario, as previously discussed.

One exception is near Sullivan County PA in the southern portion of the BGM CWA…  where a small region of higher moisture is indicated by the LAPS analysis.  In addition to a threat of strong winds…  as DCAPE values exceed 800 J/kg in a region with dew point depressions approaching 30 degrees F in some cases…  a marginal severe hail threat is also evolving for the BGM area in Sullivan and Bradford Counties in the next couple of hours where LAPS is indicating higher surface dew points.  Recent radar trends indicate that reflectivity above 0 C has increased in recent scans as well.

– Zimmerman/McCormick