Latest WV/RAP PV analysis shows a shortwave rotating around the base of a persistent deep closed low to the west of the area early this afternoon. Subtle forcing from this feature should aid in convective development throughout the afternoon. 12z observed sounding at Midland shows a more moist boundary layer than the observation 12 hours prior with nearly saturated profile up to about 5KFT AGL where the base of a weak residual EML is present transported by modest westerly flow at this level extending up through the mid/upper atmosphere. Surface flow was not particularly strong per latest surface obs but plentiful surface moisture was already present with upper 50 to lower 60 degree dew points across much of southwest Texas east of the Davis Mountains. Some convection has initiated already mainly along and near terrain north. More widespread convection and a higher chance of severe will come later as diabatic heating contributes to greater instability and aforementioned shortwave nears. ~40 knots of effecive bulk shear should support organized cells including potential for supercells in an increasingly/moderately unstable environment. Convective initiation is expected mostly around difficult to define surface boundaries and terrain features.

-dryadiabat