SJT Mesoscale Discussion

There is a warm front draped across the northern portion of the CWA with widespred cumulus developing along the front and broken skies in the warm sector. GOES-16 Day Cloud Convection RGB and Day Cloud Phase RGB show that a few of these storms have already glaciated indicating the convective initiation is underway. (Below)Laps All Sky retrievals show a relatively sharp instability gradient along warm front where our convection initiated. Storm motion is likely to be parallel to the front, so convection that does will likely be relatively long lived. (Below)Laps All Sky LI further indicates that the airmass is relatively unstable and there will be little convective inhibition at least in the midlevels. (Below)All Sky TPW indicates a relative moist airmass across the CWA with PWs above 1″ for most of the CWA. This matches the 12z sounding from MAF relatively well, and is well above the 90% threshold of the sounding climatology for that location and date. It’s interesting that the mid-level moisture (bottom left) is higher than the low level moisture (bottom right). Not quite sure what to make of that at this point. (Below)Finally, MRMS RALA indeed shows that showers and storms have developed along the front. When animated (not shown), you can see that the storms are tracking along the front, heightening my concern for flooding. 

Sandor Clegane