Daily summary of operations–includes information on which projects ran operations and problems that may have occurred.
As usual, Monday was an orientation day for the EWP. Forecasters learned how to use the experimental products in the AWIPS2 environment, and began to develop comfort using the blog.
We monitored the potential for severe storms in the Wichita and Norman CWAs. Forecasters Pelczynski and Anderson operated in Norman; forecasters Fowle and Satterfield operated in Wichita. Severe storms never developed, in spite of early optimism from the OUN WRF.
-G. Garfield
Week 4 Coordinator
Another productive day in the HWT! We ended up operating in three domains today, Denver/Boulder, CO (BOU), Indianapolis, IN (IND), and Lubbock, TX (LUB). For most of the day we had two forecasters in the BOU and IND CWAs but moved IND to LUB within the final two hours when most of the severe convection moved out of the CWA. A weak mid-level impulse and steep lapse rates supported initiation along the TX/NM border and provided both teams of forecasters to look at the PGLM products and utilize the tracking meteogram tool with these datasets.
Our BOU team remained in their CWA and mainly tracked what will likely be called the “Denver Metro Area Supercell of May 21, 2014” for years to come (this title may need to be shortened…) All GOES-R, several LAPS 3D analysis products (from the 200×200 domain), MR/MS, and Super-Rapid Scan imagery were utilized in performing mesoscale and nowcasting analyses as well as warning issuance. Preliminary reports are coming in on the spatial extent of the main rain-wrapped tornado produced by this storm around 2000z.
Our IND team faced another training sequence of convective cells that came out of the northwest into the CWA. Numerous severe hail and wind reports through the central/southern parts of the CWA. The LAPS 800×800 domain was situated over this area of complex convection, providing 2D analyses and forecasts that our participants compared to MR/MS and other observational products.
-Darrel Kingfield
EWP Week 3 Coordinator
What some people (including me) called a marginal day last night were pleasantly surprised with the amount and extent of convection observed in all CWAs utilized today. For a majority of the day we operated in the Cheyenne, WY and Quad Cities, IA/IL CWAs (CYS and DVN). As a supercell fired east of Denver, CO (BOU) forecasters leveraged this opportunity to look at the lightning jump detection algorithm and track total lightning on the tornado warned storm. In the late afternoon as the storms in the CYS area weakened, we shifted our product evaluation to Chicago, IL (LOT) for a DVN/LOT side-by-side warning operations session.
By splitting our operations into West vs. East, we were able to take advantage of (and blog about) almost all products brought into the experiment…with the exception of OUNWRF (sorry Gabe 🙁 ). The tracking meteogram was put to the test again today with forecasters wanting to track multiple product types simultaneously (radar + MR/MS, etc.) with mixed results. All forecasters issued their fair share of warnings (especially Danielle!) this afternoon. The training storms in the DVN region provided quite the challenge and convection is firing like crazy in LOT right now. I think it will be hard to pull the forecasters away from their computers tonight.
-Darrel Kingfield
EWP Week 3 Coordinator
Today started with such promise (or blind optimism…whatever you want to call it): an isolated region of “SLGT” risk encompassing parts of of SE Wyoming and W Nebraska with many storm-scale models showing isolated thunderstorm initiation around 21z. EFP probabilistic forecasts were focused in this area as well.
Forecasters were situated in the Cheyenne, WY (CYS) and North Platte, NE (LBF) for the duration of the shift on the edge of their seats waiting for initiation.
We must realize that not all days will be “end of the world” scenarios, and today provided a great medium for forecasters to be exposed to several of the experimental product sets for comparative analysis and evaluation (sans OUNWRF).
vLAPS was utilized to (1) identify and diagnose regions of enhanced instability (mainly CAPE) and (2) validate forecast composite reflectivity with MR/MS composite reflectivity. Throughout the day, comparative analyses of the NSSL-WRF simulated satellite imagery with real-time IR/WV fields were analysed. Any convection was immediately pounced upon with Super-Rapid Scan visible analysis, ProbSevere and Convective Initiation product analyses. NearCast was utilized to gauge storm lifetime and identify regions of destabilization.
The tracking meteogram was put through its paces today with numerous data dropouts observed in the time trend graph during periods were these data were available. Forecasters consistently wanted to use the 0.5 deg reflectivity mosaic product for tracking.
Near the end of the shift, total lightning from the Northern Colorado LMA was observed in Laramie and Kimball Counties in Wyoming which gave forecasters (1) exposure to the SPoRT LMA plugin and (2) guidance on how total lightning information can be combined with other sensor information (e.g. radar, satellite) in the storm interrogation process.
-Darrel Kingfield
EWP Week 3 Coordinator
For the final day of week 2, we operated in the Sterling and Shreveport CWA’s. The folks in the Sterling CWA were able to take advantage of the DC LMA and evaluate the PGLM total lightning and Lightning Jump products. Unfortunately, the lightning activity was quite minor, but they were still able to get a feel for those products. Forecasters in the Shreveport CWA were able to utilize most of the GOES-R products (minus lightning) and the OUN WRF model in forecasting for clear-sky convection in the ARKLATEX region. Though severe weather was not widespread, it was beneficial to evaluate these products in a more marginal clear sky situation.
Tomorrow at noon, this weeks participants will share their experiences from the week via the “Tales from the Testbed” webinar.
– Bill Line, GOES-R SPC/HWT Satellite Liaison and Week 2 EWP Coordinator
Today, we began operations in the Wilmington, OH and Nashville, TN CWA’s. Once again, convection along the cold front was ongoing from the previous evening. The folks in Wilmington were able to utilize many of the products as there was some clearing earlier in the period. The participants in Nashville were able to view the PGLM Total Lightning data from the Huntsville LMA, though activity was not that great, and many of the other products were not usable given the extensive cloud cover. As the lightning activity subsided, the Nashville crew moved to the Pittsburgh LMA, where new storms were beginning to initiate, and the forecasters could utilize more of the demonstrations products. The group in Wilmington would later move to the Charleston, WV CWA as convection spread eastward, before ending up in the Cleveland CWA.
Tomorrow, we will start activities at 12:30 in the Dev Lab for the daily debrief before moving to the HWT for the EFP briefing. The day looks to be similar to today, as the cold front continues to shift towards the coast. One group will likely focus activities in the DC LMA area, while the other group may work in southeast OK as that area may see some convective development from the clear sky.
– Bill Line, GOES-R SPC/HWT Satellite Liaison and Week 2 EWP Coordinator
Today, operations began in the Detroit and Cleveland CWA’s. After activity moved out of the Detroit CWA, that group moved to Wilmington. Forecasters were able to take advantage of most of the products minus lightning and OUN WRF.
Tomorrow, we will start activities at 12:30 in the Dev Lab for the daily debrief before moving to the HWT for the EFP briefing. Operations will likely take place somewhere in the Ohio Valley region as the trough continues its slow eastward progression.
– Bill Line, GOES-R SPC/HWT Satellite Liaison and Week 2 EWP Coordinator
Much of the focus for day one was hands-on training for each of the evaluation products. After some initial familiarization with AWIPS-II, the various PI’s worked with forecasters on how to interpret the products, and what to look for during the week. Forecasters also became familiar with saving images, and posting to the blog. By the end of the day, participants had already made several informative blog posts.
Today we operated in the Davenport and St. Louis CWA’s. Since many of the products being demonstrated have their greatest benefit in the pre-storm environment, forecasters were unable to experience their full potential given the ongoing convection at the beginning of operations. The Prob Severe and Overshooting Top Detection products seemed to have the most utility in this situation. Additionally, forecasters appreciated the availability of the GOES-14 1-minute imagery.
Tomorrow, we will start activities at 12:30 in the Dev Lab for the daily debrief before moving to the HWT for the EFP briefing. Operations will likely take place somewhere in the Ohio Valley region.
– Bill Line, GOES-R SPC/HWT Satellite Liaison and Week 2 EWP Coordinator
The forecasters were able to complete something more of a stress test on Wednesday, May 7th. We started the day in both the Norman (OUN) and Cheyenne (CYS) county warning areas (CWA) with the CYS team transitioning to the North Platte (LBF) CWA before the end of the operational period. Both teams put together forecast discussions before transitioning to warning operations.
Almost all of the products were evaluated. Blog posts specifically examined the CI algorithm, overshooting tops, pGLM and lightning jump, and ProbSevere.
-K. Calhoun, Week 1 Coordinator
Tuesday of our first operational week was a bit quiet, but still allowed for testing of many of the operational products. We chose to operate in the Cheyenne and Norman County Warning Areas. The nearcast, CI, and ProbWarn products were heavily utilized during our operations.
-K. Calhoun, Week 1 Coordinator