Monitoring Storm Evolution Via ProbSevere & Octane Speed/Direction

This video shows a storm’s evolution as it moves into far SW Lamb County just before 21Z. The upper left hand shows the Octane Speed product…the upper right shows the Octane Direction product…the lower left is the GOES-16 Ch. 13 Clean Window IR Band…the lower right is the Day Cloud Phase Distinction RGB product.

Looking at the Octane Speed product, as this storm is initially growing,  the cloud top features moderate cloud top divergence with the variation in Octane Speed (as the greens and yellows nearby). The storm evolution then plateaus and eventually diminishes in intensity, shown as the cloud top speed becomes more consistent (with the loss of the yellow colors). The Octane Direction product shows a southerly component to the direction across the north of the storm with a westerly component along the southern side of the cloud top. At the end of the loop you can see the yellow (the southerly component) begin to disappear as the loss of cloud top divergence causes the direction to change from the motion of the divergence to the environmental westerly component. Below is an image showing the storm’s trends via the ProbSevere Time Series (storm location now just NNW of Anton). Though the ProbSevere values will lag behind the satellite imagery, one can note the storm’s gradual increase in ProbSevere values with the “warming” colors of the Octane Speed product. The values then also level off, before dropping off as the cloud tops become more consistent.

Joaq & Bubbles

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Octane Speed/Direction Severe vs Normal Thunderstorm

If we look at the top two panels you will see a line of storms. The northern storms have small differences in wind and speed difference (green/light blue for speed and yellow and green for direction). However one of the thunderstorms to the south stick out. It has must stronger difference in wind speed (3m/s vs 16m/s) and direction (180 degrees vs 280 degrees). At the time of this image only the southern storm was severe while the northern storms were below severe.  I feel this is a great example to see how you can use OCTANE flow to spot the strongest storm in a line of developing storms. 



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