The cell I was observing was producing infrequent lightning for much of the period in the loop with probabilities in v2 staying consistently higher than v1 before and after the lightning strikes. v1 decreased to near 0% at 21:41Z right before a strike occurred at 21:56Z although the probability in v1 increased to 10% at 21:46Z. v2 probabilities remained relatively consistent during that time frame. It seemed that with the MRMS data, it had enough reason to continue the probabilities even though the lightning was infrequent. From a forecaster’s perspective, this would give me more confidence that the storm was persisting and was continuously capable of producing lightning whereas v1, I might think that (if only relying on the LightningCast), the threat was diminishing.

4 panel comparing LightningCast v1 and Lightning Cast v2

-Golden Retriever Lover

After the first day of using the new LightningCast, I was able to notice some subtle differences between the old version (LC1) and new version (LC2).  However, I don’t have enough information to say it will impact my operations one way or the other with the new version.  It does seem the new version is a bit more detailed and possibly slightly faster with convective initiation. For instance in Figure 1,  there was an isolated storm in west-central NM where the new LC has the 75% outlining the storm by the end of the loop and the older version does not. Also, the cluster across the northern portions of NM (or ABQ CWA), the older version seems to be too quick to end the lightning as it just has a small 75% line near the border of Colorado. The new version keeps that higher probability going much further south.  In this case, LC2 might provide slightly more lead time in IDSS as well as a bit more detail in the cessation of convection.

For the last figure, I wanted to provide a snapshot of the convection and compare the two LC versions. Northern NM again was a noticeable difference between the probabilities. For the farthest northern cell, LC2 has a much larger 75% prob area while the 25/50 probs are fairly similar to LC1. LC2 suggests there might be lightning between the two areas of storms in northern NM as it has the 10% prob contour completely connected while the LC1 does not.  

LC1 suggests there might be a storm developing further east with a small 25% area near the CO border, while LC2 does not have anything and verifying with radar, appears there were only a few showers in that location. It is interesting to note the two 50% areas on the two separate storms in the southeast suggested by LC1 while LC2 keeps the contours together. And judging by the FED data, LC1 is probably more correct in this snapshot.   There are a couple other differences within that snapshot, but not entirely sure these differences would make much of an impact on a warning/IDSS scenario.

Figure 1: LightningCast and Flash Extent Density at the beginning of convection on May 5, 2025.

Figure 2: Captured a few hours in the southeast section of ABQ county warning area. A few subtle differences, but nothing notable that would change operational thinking.

Figure 3: At 20:26z, the most notable difference between the two versions is with the storm across northern NM and a minor difference with the storms in the southeast portion of ABQ county warning area.

– Podium