This is a great example of LightningCast application that could be used for TAF forecasts or DSS. As the image above shows you can see the chance of lightning slowly going up for the airport getting to around 20 to 30% before the first lightning strike within 10 miles and above 60% before the first strike before it hit within 5 miles. More localized research would have to be done to see the threshold for DSS and TAFS. But in this example if we used 30% threshold we would have a 15 to 20 minutes lead time before lightning got within 10 miles of the airport.

-Thunderstruck