Convection has been slow to initiate in W TX, but we’re finally seeing some vertical extension and greater texture in the CU field on the NE side of the mountains. LightningCast is now showing higher probabilities in this area, after several scans of sub-50% contours.

We are seeing good destabilization. The PHS MUCAPE compares quite well to the SPC mesoanalysis.

LightningCast probabilities continue to climb, and we’re finally seeing a few flashes on GLM imagery.

Our LightningCast meteograms are finally showing some higher probs in the next hour near our DSS site in Fort Stockton.

We’re now seeing more defined features in the Octane imagery, including cloud top divergence signals and cooler brightness temps, down to -63C. But our ProbSevere markers remain low.

Looking at the NUCAPS-Forecast initialization at 19z, the mid level lapse rates are lower in areas NE of the higher terrain, where convection has been a bit slower to strengthen, as compared to the storms to our SW over Mexico, where MLLRs are higher.

The new TPW imagery from NUCAPS shows well the delineation of the moist air to the E and drier air to the W.

The PHS SHiP pattern looks good, but its magnitudes appear way off, compared to the SPC meso page and how SHiP is calculated.

Hail probs are exceeding 80% now on ProbSevere, although our GLM lightning is rather low! Interesting how assumed large hail presence doesn’t necessarily equate to classic charge separation that would prompt high electrification.

21z 700-500mb comparison of SPC Meso (top) vs 21z NUCAPS-Forecast (bottom)
    – Some differences in lapse rates between the two, with NUCAPS about .5-1°C/km  lower than SPC Meso page. 

ProbSevere, Octane, and IR imagery supports warning issuances for Reeves and Pecos counties.

With the warning now out for Reeves and Jeff Davis counties, this storm continues to exhibit high hail probabilities on PSv3.

Up to 120 kts of ST divergence with the warned cell (at about 50 kft).

Interesting how ProbSevere identifies objects. There appears to be 3 separate updrafts in Pecos county, however PS is seeing one object.

– Edgar and StormofCentury

We’re closely monitoring for CI near the Miami Open Tennis Tournament (location noted by the Home marker). Thus far this afternoon, the deepest convection has been in the west, NE of Naples, where the Band 13 imagery shows high cloud tops with cool brightness temps (-66C), and Octane imagery shows a good divergent signal.

So far, LightningCast has focused on the convection in the western peninsula, with the maximum slowly translating inland and to the N along the inland-tracking sea breeze.

This is further confirmed by the lightning meteogram for the DSS site. Looks like they can keep playing tennis for a little bit longer!

Looking at the storm clusters back west, a NUCAPS sounding near that cell shows plenty of CAPE.

The NUCAPS-Forecast MUCAPE confirms the high CAPE invof the storms.

Let’s see what the forecast shows for our DSS event. By 02z this evening, it shows increasing CAPE invof the DSS event. They are not out of the woods yet!

However, ProbSvr3 and LightningCast continue to provide a general idea that the strongest cell remains north and west of the Miami Open, limiting any impacts during the event.

Looking at the PHS imagery, it shows continued moderate CAPE extending into SW FL invof the ongoing convection, with much lower CAPE near our DSS event.

And the projections for 00z this evening show CAPE lowering further.

20z PHS Composite Reflectivity compared to MRMS Composite Reflectivity persistently highlights a lot of noise. Understanding from a forecaster’s perspective, this can be mentally filtered out, but at the same time, remains to be a distraction from the overall product’s use.

The warned cell over Glades county weakened and merged with other convection, and accordingly, the LightningCast probs declined. But we’re seeing new vigorous convection to the WSW just north of Bonita Springs.

One interesting note. There are new cells developing in far SW FL with lightning noted on GLM, however the cirrus canopy there is too thick to allow LightningCast to detect this convection.

– Edgar and Harvey Specter