There has been little action so far along the dryline across South Dakota so far this afternoon, despite MLCAPE peaking at 2500-3000J/kg and good convergence along the dryline and a possible dryline bulge per the SPC Mesoscale Analysis at 22Z:

Last night’s 00Z NSSL-WRF SimSat product indeed shows some isolated development along the dryline across northern South Dakota close to 00Z:

As of 23Z, a few showers have developed across central South Dakota, near the small dryline bulge, but no lightning has been observed yet.

5/22 00z NSSL WRF simulated IR & WV imagery (upper two panels) indicate deep moist convection initiating by 22z over west-central ND, along a strong cold front and ahead of shortwave energy approaching from the west/southwest.  This may be a tad optimistic given dense cirrus over the region, although the moderate/strong forcing may be able to compensate for this.  Additionally, despite some subtle differences, 20z simulated satellite (20 hour forecast) is very representative of realtime GOES IR/WV (bottom two panels), with regard to shortwave placement and magnitude, and overall spirit of dense high level clouds over the region.  

Here’s a comparison of the UW-CTC product using the default AWIPS 2 color table (bottom right) vs. a warm to cold color table (upper right). In the upper right image the stronger cloud top cooling rates are displayed as a warmer color, similar to IR satellite color table enhancements that display the colder cloud top temperatures with warmer colors. This has the benefit of drawing the attention of forecasters who are conditions to associate warmer colors with more extreme values (ie, radar data).

Small area of cumulus developing over higher terrain in west Texas shows high strength of signal value on the UAH CI product at 1730z:

This area continued to develop into a mature CB, with the first cloud to ground lightning detected by NLDN at 1945z – a 2 hour lead time from the first CI signal to the initial cloud to ground lighting activity.