ABR-Awaiting Possible Development

There has been little action so far along the dryline across South Dakota so far this afternoon, despite MLCAPE peaking at 2500-3000J/kg and good convergence along the dryline and a possible dryline bulge per the SPC Mesoscale Analysis at 22Z:

22Z SPC Mesoscale Analysis for WFO ABR and vicinity.

Last night’s 00Z NSSL-WRF SimSat product indeed shows some isolated development along the dryline across northern South Dakota close to 00Z:

00Z NSSL-WRF SimSat valid 00Z this evening.

As of 23Z, a few showers have developed across central South Dakota, near the small dryline bulge, but no lightning has been observed yet.

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