5/22 00z NSSL WRF simulated IR & WV imagery (upper two panels) indicate deep moist convection initiating by 22z over west-central ND, along a strong cold front and ahead of shortwave energy approaching from the west/southwest.  This may be a tad optimistic given dense cirrus over the region, although the moderate/strong forcing may be able to compensate for this.  Additionally, despite some subtle differences, 20z simulated satellite (20 hour forecast) is very representative of realtime GOES IR/WV (bottom two panels), with regard to shortwave placement and magnitude, and overall spirit of dense high level clouds over the region.