We watched a slowly SE-ward progressing outflow boundary with initiation already underway over far W-OK Panhandle. Northward building of deep convection is closely monitored as CI product indicates high potential with cloud top cooling around -11K/15 min present. Deep and well mixed profiles east of that boundary hint at enhanced downburst / isolated large hail potential as storms also enter a favorable air mass with MLCAPE AOA 2000 J/kg. Shear remains too weak but modest veering present, so a few better organized multicells are possible. Capture was done at 2032Z.

First signals seen in reflectivity fields in the area of interest about 20 min later (2052 Z), which gave a good lead time.

Helge Tuschy