EWP STATUS FOR 18 MAY 2012: 9am-12pm SHIFT

Friday is our end-of-week debriefing day, and we do not conduct real-time operations.  The schedule:

900   Webinar prep and dry run in WDTB Conf. Room (presenters only)

1000-1140  End-of-week debriefing in NSSL Dev Lab (forecasters, scientists, guests)

1140-1200  Break

1200-1300  “Tales From the Testbed” Webinar in WDTB Conf. Room (presenters, facilitators, guests)

1300  End of operations for the week, forecasters travel home.

Jim LaDue, EWP2012 Week #2 Coordinator

EWP STATUS FOR 17 MAY 2012:  12-8pm SHIFT

Prospects for active real-time operations appear to be diminishing a bit.  However, there are two possibilities for operations.

The first would be in FL as the southern stream flow and continuing small short-wave troughs move across the peninsula.  Little cap and high moisture will initiate convection quite early should the diurnal heating be allowed.  Today, thick cloud cover restricted heating.  It’s more likely that there will be less deep cloud cover and solar insolation will be stronger. The southern stream flow may be strong enough to organize any convection into sustained multicells or perhaps a short duration supercell.  In fact the SREF guidance suggests a good possibility of supercells, especially in southern FL including the Keys.

The second area would be along the coastal Carolinas just like in the past few days.  The odds for organized convection would strangely enough be less than in FL owing to lower mid-level winds.

Most likely we may focus the two teams on FL if two CWAs are active with convection.  Given the lack of convective inhibition and plenty of local forcing mechanisms, we’ll start again with an early shift.  Should the area be on the subsident portion of an upper-level wave, we should be ready to activate a case in DRT mode.

Shift time will be 12 – 8 pm.

EWP STATUS FOR 16 MAY 2012:  12-8pm SHIFT

Based on the available 15 UTC SREF guidance, the east coast again appears to be the best potential for deep, moist convection (DMC).

We have three potential plays of concern.  The first area may be New England as the northern stream system affecting IA to WI today moves to the east and begins to impinge on better moisture along the eastern Seaboard.  With increasing midlevel winds, the deep layer shear will increase enough for a supercell threat as long as the instability is not prematurely extinguished.  The second area will be further south along the coastal regions of the Carolinas.  Similar to the past few days, substantial moisture and marginal midlevel flow from the stalled trough may produce enough shear for organized small multicells.  Boundary interactions will provide for an interesting session for anticipating severe DMC.  The third area will be in FL again as the southern TX upper-tropospheric wave moves eastward.  Mid- and upper-level flow will also be marginal to perhaps sufficient for supercells, especially in regions where low-level backed sea breeze flow augments deep layer shear.

All of these potential targets will likely initiate DMC early enough to warrant a 12 – 8 pm shift.

Jim LaDue, EWP2012 Week #2 Weekly Coordinator

EWP STATUS FOR 15 MAY 2012:  12-8pm SHIFT

Based on the available 15 UTC SREF guidance, two areas will be in play for a 12 – 8 pm CDT shift.

The first is along a northern stream wave cold front in WI to MI where instability may result in thunderstorms.  Thunderstorms are likely to develop between 2 and 4 pm CDT.

The second area will be along the slow moving eastern trough where a continued feed of deep moisture intersects a front from VA north to NY.  Both areas appear to be conducive to generate diurnal convection.  In fact the eastern play may develop convection relatively early in the day given the lack of CAP and near saturation in the lowest few hundred mb.  Shear may be strong enough for more supercells or organized bows. Expect convection to develop at 12 pm CDT or perhaps even earlier.

Jim LaDue, EWP2012 Week#2 Weekly Coordinator

EWP STATUS FOR 11 MAY 2012:  930am-100pm SHIFT

Friday is our end-of-week debriefing day, and we do not conduct real-time operations.  The schedule:

930   Webinar dry run in WDTB Conf. Room (presenters only)

1000-1140  End-of-week debriefing in NSSL Dev Lab (forecasters, scientists, guests)

1140-1200  Break

1200-1300  “Tales From the Testbed” Webinar in WDTB Conf. Room (presenters, facilitators, guests)

1300  End of operations for the week, forecasters travel home.

Greg Stumpf, EWP2012 Week #1 Coordinator

EWP STATUS FOR 10 MAY 2012:  1-9pm SHIFT

We will be conducting a 1-9pm shift for Thu 10 May 2012.  Our area of interest is back in southern Texas.  The lingering cutoff low over Mexico is expected to eject over SW Texas on Thursday, and the strong upper level flow will persist in our target area (see Figure).  Storms are expected to fire over the higher terrain in Mexico and draft across the Rio Grande into south TX.  Some convection may also develop within the U. S.  Timing is expected to be late afternoon and evening, so we’ll go with our usual 1-9pm shift for Thursday.

Greg Stumpf, EWP2012 Week #1 Coordinator

EWP STATUS FOR 9 MAY 2012:  12-8pm SHIFT

We will be conducting a 12-8pm shift for Wed 9 May 2012. There are two areas of interest, and both will probably see their chances of severe convection die off at sunset, hence the early shift.

Area #1 would be coastal South Carolina and Georgia, as a cold front may fire off some marginally severe convection.  Area #2 is back to southern Texas, where the subtropical jet continues to provide strong shear.  However, boundaries may set up too far south (in Mexico) from current convection and limit the instability.

Because both areas are marginal, we may also spend time on another WES archive case.

Greg Stumpf, EWP2012 Week #1 Coordinator

EWP STATUS FOR 8 MAY 2012:  1-9pm SHIFT

We will be conducting a 1-9pm shift for Tue 8 May 2012.  We will be operating in much the same areas as Monday, as the strong sub-tropical jet and high shear persists.  Hoping that the convection isn’t too confined to Old Mexico or in the radar void areas of SW TX.  Expect operations as MAF, SJT, and EWX again.

Second area of concern is the DC area, although it appears that the convection might affect only the western part of the CWA and late.  Because this is a less certain area for severe, we will stick with the SW TX target for determining our Tues flex shift time, which will be the “default” of 1-9pm.

Greg Stumpf, EWP2012 Week #1 Coordinator