EWP STATUS FOR 15 MAY 2012:  12-8pm SHIFT

Based on the available 15 UTC SREF guidance, two areas will be in play for a 12 – 8 pm CDT shift.

The first is along a northern stream wave cold front in WI to MI where instability may result in thunderstorms.  Thunderstorms are likely to develop between 2 and 4 pm CDT.

The second area will be along the slow moving eastern trough where a continued feed of deep moisture intersects a front from VA north to NY.  Both areas appear to be conducive to generate diurnal convection.  In fact the eastern play may develop convection relatively early in the day given the lack of CAP and near saturation in the lowest few hundred mb.  Shear may be strong enough for more supercells or organized bows. Expect convection to develop at 12 pm CDT or perhaps even earlier.

Jim LaDue, EWP2012 Week#2 Weekly Coordinator