EWP STATUS FOR 16 MAY 2012:  12-8pm SHIFT

Based on the available 15 UTC SREF guidance, the east coast again appears to be the best potential for deep, moist convection (DMC).

We have three potential plays of concern.  The first area may be New England as the northern stream system affecting IA to WI today moves to the east and begins to impinge on better moisture along the eastern Seaboard.  With increasing midlevel winds, the deep layer shear will increase enough for a supercell threat as long as the instability is not prematurely extinguished.  The second area will be further south along the coastal regions of the Carolinas.  Similar to the past few days, substantial moisture and marginal midlevel flow from the stalled trough may produce enough shear for organized small multicells.  Boundary interactions will provide for an interesting session for anticipating severe DMC.  The third area will be in FL again as the southern TX upper-tropospheric wave moves eastward.  Mid- and upper-level flow will also be marginal to perhaps sufficient for supercells, especially in regions where low-level backed sea breeze flow augments deep layer shear.

All of these potential targets will likely initiate DMC early enough to warrant a 12 – 8 pm shift.

Jim LaDue, EWP2012 Week #2 Weekly Coordinator