EWP STATUS FOR 17 MAY 2012: 12-8pm SHIFT

EWP STATUS FOR 17 MAY 2012:  12-8pm SHIFT

Prospects for active real-time operations appear to be diminishing a bit.  However, there are two possibilities for operations.

The first would be in FL as the southern stream flow and continuing small short-wave troughs move across the peninsula.  Little cap and high moisture will initiate convection quite early should the diurnal heating be allowed.  Today, thick cloud cover restricted heating.  It’s more likely that there will be less deep cloud cover and solar insolation will be stronger. The southern stream flow may be strong enough to organize any convection into sustained multicells or perhaps a short duration supercell.  In fact the SREF guidance suggests a good possibility of supercells, especially in southern FL including the Keys.

The second area would be along the coastal Carolinas just like in the past few days.  The odds for organized convection would strangely enough be less than in FL owing to lower mid-level winds.

Most likely we may focus the two teams on FL if two CWAs are active with convection.  Given the lack of convective inhibition and plenty of local forcing mechanisms, we’ll start again with an early shift.  Should the area be on the subsident portion of an upper-level wave, we should be ready to activate a case in DRT mode.

Shift time will be 12 – 8 pm.

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