We’re closely monitoring for CI near the Miami Open Tennis Tournament (location noted by the Home marker). Thus far this afternoon, the deepest convection has been in the west, NE of Naples, where the Band 13 imagery shows high cloud tops with cool brightness temps (-66C), and Octane imagery shows a good divergent signal.
So far, LightningCast has focused on the convection in the western peninsula, with the maximum slowly translating inland and to the N along the inland-tracking sea breeze.
This is further confirmed by the lightning meteogram for the DSS site. Looks like they can keep playing tennis for a little bit longer!
Looking at the storm clusters back west, a NUCAPS sounding near that cell shows plenty of CAPE.
The NUCAPS-Forecast MUCAPE confirms the high CAPE invof the storms.
Let’s see what the forecast shows for our DSS event. By 02z this evening, it shows increasing CAPE invof the DSS event. They are not out of the woods yet!
However, ProbSvr3 and LightningCast continue to provide a general idea that the strongest cell remains north and west of the Miami Open, limiting any impacts during the event.
Looking at the PHS imagery, it shows continued moderate CAPE extending into SW FL invof the ongoing convection, with much lower CAPE near our DSS event.
And the projections for 00z this evening show CAPE lowering further.
20z PHS Composite Reflectivity compared to MRMS Composite Reflectivity persistently highlights a lot of noise. Understanding from a forecaster’s perspective, this can be mentally filtered out, but at the same time, remains to be a distraction from the overall product’s use.
The warned cell over Glades county weakened and merged with other convection, and accordingly, the LightningCast probs declined. But we’re seeing new vigorous convection to the WSW just north of Bonita Springs.
One interesting note. There are new cells developing in far SW FL with lightning noted on GLM, however the cirrus canopy there is too thick to allow LightningCast to detect this convection.
– Edgar and Harvey Specter
-Thunderstruck
Octane Speed Sandwich also captured the outflow boundary approaching the DSS Event. 
-Thunderstruck
PHS shows a similar trend to NUCAPs with higher areas of SBCAPE across the central and southern CWA with lower values across the northern half of the CWA. However, the color scale on the online version of PHS is difficult to interpret as the gradient ramps up from light red to dark red. So, you cannot really pinpoint specific values of SBCAPE. However, you are able to see areas of lower SBCAPE and areas of higher SBCAPE at a glance. 
The Octane Speed Sandwich product further confirms that storms are remaining below severe limits as the strongest storms are noted over southeastern Florida this afternoon as of 1930Z. Not only do these products help us pinpoint areas of potential severe weather, but they also help us pinpoint areas of sub-severe weather. 
GLM shows lightning activity increasing across the Tampa CWA early this afternoon, and activity is expected to gradually increase in coverage as more thunderstorms develop through the late afternoon and early evening hours. 
Lightning Cast around 1930Z shows lightning probabilities increasing across the Tampa CWA over the next hour. Pink contours represent a 75% chance of lightning in the next hour. Green represents a 50% chance, teal a 20% chance, and dark blue a10% chance of lightning in the next hour. 
GLM showing lightning activity increasing across Florida from 1930Z through 2016Z across the Tampa CWA. Areas showing more oranges and yellows have shorter flashes and more lightning density. These areas help us know where stronger updrafts are located. The strongest updrafts at the time of this loop remain outside of the Tampa CWA. 
-Dwight Schrute
GOES-16 Octane Direction. 
KPUX 0.5 degree reflectivity.
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