FED Gives Precursor to Strenthening Supercell, but…

Watching the last storm in the line that is still in Illinois, the Flash Extent Density values started climbing rapidly (between 1947Z and 2020Z), which suggested to me that I should start paying attention to it. Upon interrogation, the velocity started to change from being more convergent to rotational, and eventually it appeared that a tornado was likely per the KIND radar. Interestingly, that was when the FED fell rapidly (2022Z).

Clockwise from Top Left: 0.5 KIND Reflectivity, 0.5 KIND SRM, 0.5 KIND Vel, FED

There was also an increase in FED after the tornado signature became less intense, but when it wrapped up again, the FED decreased again (not shown).

Interestingly, I also looked at these same data with the new color curve that Jonathan and Kristin worked on today, and the increase and decreases in FED were not as clear, and I don’t think it would have drawn my attention as quickly. Perhaps the lower values need to be more muted or less bright, but still within the same the rainbow color curve.

Clockwise from Top Left: 0.5 KIND Reflectivity, 0.5 KIND SRM, 0.5 KIND Vel, FED

-Tempest Sooner

5-min FED Colormaps

Testing a new colormap for FED using the Rainbow colormap in Python.  The first image depicts the modified 5-min FED with the modified colormap.  There is more variation on the lower end of the 5-min FED.  Will this colormap depict the variation in the more intense convection. The second image is the original 5-min FED colormap.  – Jonathan Wynn Smith (ESSIC/UMD)

IDSS Usage from GLM/Minimum Flash Area

An MCS shifting southeastward across northern IL was producing quite a bit of lightning, and much of it was moving through the southwest portion of the line per Flash Extent Density. From a IDSS standpoint, the Minimum Flash Area and FED proved that it’s necessary to look at both GLM products and ground based lightning products to see the “total” picture. The GLM products captured a larger flash that extended out into the stratiform area behind the main line that is not seen in the ENTLN and NLDN products. This information can be especially important for Airport Weather Warnings and/or outdoor venues. You can easily see that the flash extends almost back to the Rockford Airport, while the main line and most of the flashes are ~80 miles away. In other words, areas near Rockford Airport are not out of the woods yet for lightning.

Clockwise from top left: RALA, Minimum Flash Area, NLDN and ENTLN Lightning Plot, Flash Extent Density

-Tempest Sooner

Lightning observed but no GLM

ProbSevere gives every indication of a severe storm over Morton County, ND (see ProbSevere read out below).  The Earth Networks lightning suggests there of 52 fl/min but GLM FED gives 0 fl, TOE 0 fJ, and AFA 0 km^2.  The two depictions below show those three GLM fields with the MRMS 1 km reflectivity.  Perhaps there is an issue with viewing angle at this northern latitude. – Jonathan Wynn Smith (ESSIC/UMD)

ProbHail: 93%; ProbWind: 95%; ProbTor: 5%
– MESH: 1.83 in.
– VIL Density: 3.20 g/m^3
– ENI Flash Rate: 52 fl/min
– ENI Flash Density (max in last 30 min): 0.89 fl/min/km^2
– Max LLAzShear: 0.007 /s
– 98% LLAzShear: 0.006 /s
– 98% MLAzShear: 0.008 /s
– Norm. vert. growth rate: 2101Z 1.3%/min (weak)
– EBShear: 38.0 kts; SRH 0-1km AGL: 155 m^2/s^2
– MUCAPE: 2925 J/kg; MLCAPE: 1657 J/kg; MLCIN: -36 J/kg
– MeanWind 1-3kmAGL: 26.4 kts
– Wetbulb 0C hgt: 9.0 kft AGL
– CAPE -10C to -30C: 546 J/kg; PWAT: 1.3 in.
GLM: max FED: 0 fl; sum FCD: 0 fl/5-min
GLM: max TOE: 0 fJ; avg AFA: 0 km^2
Avg. beam height (ARL): 1.28 kft / 0.39 km
Object ID: 273531
PS: 98

GLM usability in heavily parallaxed locations

It’s pretty clear to me that both the GOES-west and GOES-east are having a lot of trouble detecting lightning (GLM) in the northwest U.S. with accuracy of location or frequency due to parallax, spatial resolution, and GOES tilt sampling of storms. Below is an animation specifically over southwest Montana where the GLM displaces the FED significantly (side note: TOE was very similar for these, so FED is shown for best example), and also has trouble picking up in-cloud pulses. The ENTI is overlaid in pink to show the differences in GLM vs ENTI. If you watch closely, the first frame depicts an ENTI in-cloud lightning flash & pulse in the far southwest portion of the screen, where no GLM FED (or TOE; not shown here) was even detected. There is also some instances where the GLM places lightning pixels where the ENTI or NLDN does not show anything in the same time frame (also making it hard to verify both products).

 

Below is a separate example where the FED does not show what I would expect it to show for a central Wyoming storm (differentiating intensity as well as location and timing). The GOES-east is the first to detect, then the GOES-west detects thereafter. GOES-east and GOES-west did not detect at the same time in any frame. Both products are loaded as a 5min-1min update.

 

Now here’s a case farther south in New Mexico where a storm cell is of comparable intensity as the northern examples. The GLM detection seems more accurate than the MT case, but the last frames here show that the GLM also has trouble with keeping FED on the cell core of interest.

Interestingly enough, the TOE (shown below) does a better job here  in NM with spatial coverage than it did up north in MT, but still has displacement issues comparing to ENTI and MRMS storm cores. I find that the TOE (especially with GOES-west) does a better job at recognizing the spatial extent of a flash here than the FED product did. (See above vs. below).

Now the question is, is the parallex better in the south-central U.S.?  And what if we look at higher resolution products like the group centroid density GLM product? While comparing the satellite GLM, with Day-Land-Cloud-Convection RGB, and with the ENTI/GLD/NLDN strikes (overlaid in pink) in SE Missouri…..it’s clear that a forecaster should not solely rely on GLM for core lightning locations (below). -shearluck

Reiterating the use of GLM over open water

A great example of GLM usability is over the Gulf of Mexico (or any open bodies of water) where radar coverage and ENTI lightning sources diminish. Here’s an example of how a system moves eastward over the Gulf: radar disappears, but GLM (and some NLDN/ENTI) lightning data still lets you know where the strongest storm updrafts are located. Not only that, but the spatial extent of lightning is better known now that you have GLM alone. Below is displaying radar and satellite with FED GLM data, and NLDN/ENTI lightning detection. ProbSevere also becomes less relevant. The separate updrafts are easily distinguishable toward the end of the animation using FED.

Next animation is the same, but with FED on top of radar making it easier to see its evolution and usability:

 

Now with the same scenario, comparing the Minimum Flash Area (MFA) GLM product with the Average Flash Area (AFA) GLM product, it is MUCH easier to differentiate new convection with the MFA product. Notice all of the yellow spots in NM and Mexico that make it easily detectable with the human eye as you watch your SA monitor. This may be a product of color scale for the AFA, but this tells me that the MFA would be more useful in convective initiation. I have not gotten much value out of the AFA  as I would with just simply using the FED (Flash Extend Density GLM product) or TOE (Total Optical Energy). -shearluck

TOP IMAGE: MFA       ;     BOTTOM IMAGE: AFA

GLM Weak Convection

On a day with weak convection, it was interesting to watch the Minimum Flash Area and how it related to storm structure. As expected closer to the updraft, smaller flashes were noted, but there is clearly a larger flash that extends out into the anvil area. This is quite the distance from the core of the storms, and thus would have impacts on DSS based services and potential lightning strikes to outdoor events.

Reflectivity, Minimum Flash Area, Average Flash Area, TOE clockwise from top left.

ProbTor reliable? Lightning says no, MRMS says maybe.

There is difficulty with having confidence of the ProbTor portion of the ProbSevere product due to an instance where it is estimating higher tor rates (8%) when a storm has no identified lightning (GLM, NLDN, and ENTI) along the coast of Florida. To be fair, the storm previously did indicate some lightning with it. I investigated the TOE, FED, and Min Flash Area in the vicinity of this storm, as well as usual point lightning data in 5 and 1 min updating intervals, and it has me confused as to what the ProbSevere is “seeing” for its lightning data (it is indicating ENTI lightning within its circle). Below is the image example of ProbSevere loaded alongside lightning data including GLM’s Min Flash Area:

 

I also pulled up the lowest level rotation tracks from MRMS data, and it did indicate a slightly higher maximum within the ProbTor circle, so I believe the ProbTor is locking on to that feature.   – shearluck

 

Wrappin’ my head around some other GLM stuff

Upper Left: 1-minute visible with 5 minute cloud flash (1-min update)
Upper Right: Total Optical Energy
Lower Left: GLM Average Group Area
Lower Right: Event Density

Bright yellow/orange colors on lower left depict a smaller average group area associated with a tighter concentration of flashes. We are intermittently seeing greater concentrations at the southern extent in an area otherwise associated with little activity. 

Now taking a look at a specific time below…

We see a single pixel of orange (lower part of lower left panel) corresponding with a small group area. This appears to be associated with two fairly isolated ENTLN flashes (upper left).  Total Optical Energy (upper right) and Event Density values (lower right) are not overly impressive, which is not surprising, given the limited activity.

Now for something else that’s rather striking (ha ha) in the eastern half of this area. ENTLN cloud flashes depict two active areas in the northeast corner but little if any activity to the southeast beyond that. Shown another way…

So, we see good connectivity in probable electrification from northwest to southeast that is not otherwise apparent in the flash data. So, I’m slowly coming around to the idea that this can be helpful for IDSS applications when lightning is a concern with multi-cell clusters featuring extensive anvil coverage.

#MarfaFront