EWP Blog

An area of very high CI probailites (90%) caught my eye at thresholds around 90%.  Sure enough, convection did indeed form around the time of the highest probabilities, so the product worked well in highlighting the area of potential convection.  However, convection quickly died out after reaching the dBZ thresholds to blank out the CI algorithm out (30-40 dBz).  So while it proved well in identifying an area of potential storm development, in this case, the storms simply failed to materialize into anything more then a few light showers/sprinkles (although I realize the algorithm is not meant to diagnose storm sustainability).

– Deitsch

Monday 12 May 2014 begins the second week of our four-week spring experiment of the 2014 NSSL-NWS Experimental Warning Program (EWP2014) in the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed at the National Weather Center in Norman, OK.  This week we will evaluate multiple experimental products geared toward WFO applications.   This evaluation – known as “The Big Experiment” – will have three components including a) an evaluation of multiple CONUS GOES-R convective applications, including satellite and lightning;  b) an evaluation of the model performance and forecast utility of two convection-allowing models (the variational Local Analysis Prediction System and the Norman WRF); c) and an evaluation of a new feature trending tool.  We will also be coordinating with the Experimental Forecast Program and evaluating their probabilistic severe weather outlooks as guidance for our warning operations.  Operational activities will take place during the week Monday through Friday.

For the week of 12-16 May, our distinguished NWS guests will be Kevin Deitsch (WFO Louisville, KY), Shawn Smith (WFO Buffalo, NY), and Michael Scotten (WFO Norman, OK).  In addition to our NWS forecasters, we will be hosting a broadcast meteorologist to work at the forecast desk; this week, our distinguished guest will be Erica Grow of WUSA-TV (Washington, DC).  If you see any of these folks walking around the building with a “NOAA Spring Experiment” visitor lanyard, please welcome them!   The GOES-R program office, the NOAA Global Systems Divisions (GSD), and the National Severe Storms Laboratory have generously provided travel stipends for our participants from NWS forecast offices and television stations nationwide.

Visiting scientists and observers this week will include Hongli Jiang (GSD), John Cintineo (UW-Madison/CIMSS), John Mecicalksi (University of Alabama – Huntsville), Elise Schultz (University of Alabama – Huntsville), Sara Stough (University of Alabama – Huntsville), Ben Baranowski (Weather Decision Technologies), Jason Lynn (Weather Decision Technologies), Chris Schwarz (Weather Decision Technologies), and Mike Smith (AccuWeather / WeatheData),.

Bill Line will be the weekly coordinator.  Lance VandenBoogart (WDTB) will be our “Tales from the Testbed” Webinar facilitator. Our support team also includes Darrel Kingfield, Kristin Calhoun, Gabe Garfield, Chris Karstens, Greg Stumpf,  Karen Cooper, Vicki Farmer, Lans Rothfusz, Travis Smith, Aaron Anderson, and David Andra.

Here are several links of interest:

You can learn more about the EWP here:

https://hwt.nssl.noaa.gov/

NOAA employees can access the internal EWP2014 page with their LDAP credentials:

https://hwt.nssl.noaa.gov/ewp/internal/2014/

 
Gabe Garfield
CIMMS/NWS OUN
2014 EWP Operations Coordinator

Project Overview:

This was first week of our four-week spring experiment of the 2014 NSSL-NWS Experimental Warning Program (EWP2014) in the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed at the National Weather Center in Norman, OK.  “The Big Experiment” or “Spring Experiment” had three components:  (1) an evaluation of multiple CONUS GOES-R convective applications, including satellite and lightning;  (2) an evaluation of the model performance and forecast utility of two convection-allowing models (the variational Local Analysis Prediction System and the Norman WRF);  (3) and an evaluation of a new feature tracking tool from NASA SPORT.  Additionally we coordinated daily with Experimental Forecast Program, participating in briefings and evaluating the probabilistic severe weather outlooks produced by their forecasters as guidance for our warning operations.

Participants:

The NWS guests were Jared Maples (WFO Grand Rapids, MI), Scott Rudge (WFO Rapid City, SD), and Bruce Thoren (WFO Norman, OK).  Additionally, for the first time, the EWP is hosting a weather broadcaster to work with the NWS forecasters at the forecast desk.  This week, the guest was Daniel Bickford of WSPA-TV (Greenville, SC).   The GOES-R program office, the NOAA Global Systems Divisions (GSD), and the National Severe Storms Laboratory provided travel stipends for our participants from NWS forecast offices and television stations nationwide.

Visiting scientists this week included Hongli Jiang (GSD), Paola Salio (Ciudad Universitaria, Buenos Aires, Argentina), Justin Sieglaff (CIMSS), and Kris White (WFO Huntsville, AL).

Kristin Calhoun was the weekly coordinator, Gabe Garfield the back-up coordinator and Lance VandenBoogart (WDTB) was our “Tales from the Testbed” Webinar facilitator. Our support team also included Darrel Kingfield, Bill Line, Chris Karstens, Greg Stumpf,  Karen Cooper, Vicki Farmer, Lans Rothfusz, Travis Smith, Aaron Anderson, and David Andra.

Daily Operations Summary:

Feedback on Experimental Products:

Contributors:

-Kristin Calhoun, Week 1 Coordinator

-Gabe Garfield, EWP Spring Experiment Coordinator

If you refer to the first image, it is obvious that we have some cold cloud tops over Minnesota and Wisconsin. However, it wouldn’t be quite obvious where the highest tops exist and which of those are necessarily overshooting tops. The OTD (Overshooting Top Detection) tool helps! By detecting a cloud top that is less than or equal to -6K than its surrounding anvil, the OTD will mark the cloud top (seen by the dark blue marks in the second image). The anvil must also meet a temperature threshold. The anvil must be less than or equal to 225K and the top must be less than or equal to 215K. If these conditions are not met, no overshooting top will be detected. This prevents the tool from being over sensitive and creating false detections.

Jared Maples

LAPS Max reflectivity has done an adequate job with storm placement and storm mode with the exception of some model boundary issues. Those issues have become less and less apparent in successive runs. Definitely some utility with this product for short term trends.

Scott Rudge.

Most recent run of LAPS model, increases storms across the far eastern part of FSD’s CWA.  By 00z (three hour forecast), storms extend from Revere to Okabena to Sioux Rapids.

bt

Here’s the max base reflectivity forecast for 22:15 Z..again , notice the east/west line of convection along the IA/MO border.

Here’s the 23Z forecast.  Notice how the western edge of that east/west line seems to interact with the “real” convection line to the west…taking on less of a linear character and looking more like the individual cells we have been seeing so far.  The eastern edge of that east/west line remains linear and lifts to the northeast.

Here’s the 23Z CAPE forecast,  Notice we continue to see a persistent east/west oriented waveform along our southern domain boundary.  Non-damped boundary waves are being turned into peaks of instability, leading to convective response in the model.

Obviously, where a forecaster sees a radar feature in line with spurious model waves, they can discount it.  Of concern is when these features interact with/react to “actual” convective features the model is tracking.  This could lead to other spurious development or result in contaminating the character of any convection that wanders into the waveform.

db

22Z…a broken line of storms continues through western IA.  To this point, strong…but not strong enough to warrant warning.

The LAPS model forecast for 22Z is below

Catches the basic idea of the shape/character of convection to the west, but just a little off in location.

Here’s the Nearcast instability forecast looking ahead four hours…highest instability will lift northeast, and this batch of convection will move with it.  Notice lingering instability (relatively speaking)near the NE/IA border.

The CI product shows the potential for more convection to develop along the main cold front behind our initial line.  Expecting this activity, should it take hold, will be less of a concern with lower instability to work with compared to the first line.

db

LAPS CAPE field makes tracking the warm sector easy. Notice the nice storms along the warm front just east of Sioux Falls, SD.

Scott Rudge.