Tuesday 2030Z – NearCast Analysis

Here is the 2030Z forecast from the 20z Nearcast model. White line represents a weak boundary
Here is the 2030Z forecast from the 20z Nearcast model. White line represents a weak boundary
Here is the same image with current radar overlaid.
Here is the same image with current radar overlaid.

This post shows how the Nearcast model did well in depicting a weak north/northwest moving boundary that initiated convection in southwestern WV.  In a rather “pulsey” environment, the ability to pick out this boundary aided in confidence as to where convection was going to form.  Definitely a good tool to use in conditions where forcing is subtle and there is uncertainty on location on CI.

-Deitsch

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