The Spring Warning Project shift for Wednesday 5/13 will be 12-8 pm.  We will begin in the Development Lab.

The Spring Warning Project shift for Thurs May 7th will be Noon to 8 pm.  We will begin with a debrief and discussion in the DevLab.

Followed by a weather discussion in the HWT at 12:45 pm.

On Thursday, rich moisture and strong instability will once again be present in the Plains.  Additionally, a front / outflow boundary is forecast over southern Kansas / northern Oklahoma, which could locally enhance vertical wind shear.  However, a stout cap / elevated mixed layer is forecast over the boundary, so convective initiation is questionable.  Given a storm, though, a conditional risk will exist for supercells and a few tornadoes.

Further to the north and west, another day of upslope flow is expected in the lee of the Rockies.  Instability may be higher tomorrow than it was today, so the severe threat may be slightly greater.  Possible CWAs include Norman, Wichita, Dodge City, Pueblo, and Boulder.  We will begin in the Development Lab at 12:30 pm.

-G. Garfield
Week 4 Coordinator

For Wednesday, the severe threat shifts eastward with the ongoing MCS in eastern Nebraska.  Seasonably-rich moisture will continue to advect northward into the Mississippi and Ohio valleys which – in combination with steep lapse rates – will yield strong instability.  However, given our need for a clean pre-convective environment (for our GOES-R products), we are not certain that we will operate in this area (the High Plains may provide a better opportunity).  Given the uncertainty regarding the greatest severe threat tomorrow, I will refrain from specifying any specific CWAs for operation.   Our shift will begin at 12:30 pm in the Development Lab.

– G. Garfield

Week 4 Coordinator