Have a strong gradient of temperatures across the region this hour, with upper 50s in the north and mid 80s in our one clear spot in the southeast forecast area.

Surface low is to the southwest with a frontal boundary extending northeast into our southern CWA.  Quite a bit of shear aloft, with SRH from the SPC mesoanalysis in the 200-300 range across the south, higher in the southeast and 0-1 km bulk shear 10 in the west and 25 in the east.  These would lead to potential for supercells to develop in the warmer air, and perhaps allow for tornado development close to the frontal boundary.

LAP sounder data is not too high for TT, with CAPE and LI more indicative of storm potential in the south and southeast.  Have a PW gradient with higher values to the east.

CI product already showing a 89% prob in southern OAX…radar already showing storms building with lightning

Prob Severe over 90%…our warnings cover it!

Wacha/Inthecards

Just after 7pm a monster storm developed southwest of Hastings, NE. At 732pm the storm intensified to near 70 dbz up to 32kft! The MESH product showed just over 2″ hail and the RSO showed nice bubbling of the overshooting top on visible satellite. This was definitely picked up by the overshooting top algorithm. Ironically, the lightning was never really all that impressive, but did hold steady. The lightning level really dropped by the time the maximum storm strength was reached.

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-Shasta

Had a cell form quickly along the merger of a couple of outflow boundaries.  ProbSevere quickly picked up on it and it quickly had a bit of lightning with it too.  Made the warning 30 minutes to get a gauge on which direction it would end up moving.

line of storms moving north from Gospar county.  DVIL high again, not a good angle to see wind speeds.  Would guess the primary issue would be hail here.

More cells developing behind the line we originally warned for in Furnas county.

Overshooting top signal and concentrated lightning flashes.

Pardon my puns. Mr Snow and I were testing out the NUCAPS product now that things have settled down in our DMA. We selected different locations and got different results.

Compared to surface obs, the NUCAPS temperature did not need to be altered, but the moisture did, by about 6 degrees Celsius.  This change took my MU parcel cape from 15J/kg to ~2000J/kg. SPC meso had it closer to 1500J/kg. The EL also doubled from 6 to 12 km.

We did have storms just SW of this area, however, as they lifted NE, they weakened.

-Brick Tamland

Checked NUCAPS sounding at 19Z just east of LBF and used T/Td of 89/66 to modify the surface and got around 4000 J/kg CAPE.  Initially NUCAPS near the surface was much too cool and dry (80/54), so the modification was necessary.   It did agree better with the SPC mesoanalysis and RAP which showed values over 3000 J/kg and much better than the LAP CAPE.  MrSnow/BT

Decided against going for another wide warning, focusing more on the part of the storm with the highest DVIL.  Had another overshooting top in that area as well.