Watching 2 main cells that are giving some of the higher terrain areas the business. Generally seeing an increase in the coverage of storms east of the Davis Mountains now and that is what the OUNWRF has been advertising starting late afternoon/early evening. Expect areas around and south of Midland to see increase in thunderstorm activity through the early evening hours.
FSD – CIRA WRF Simulated imagery off on location but good on timing
After seeing the CIRA sim imagery do very well in ABQ, we switched to FSD where the sim imagery indicated deep convection developing between 2100-2200z, but the location of the convection was about 130mi ese of where convection developed in Tripp and Lyman counties in central SD.
CIRA WRF Simulated IR 10.4 valid at 13 Jun 2100z:
GOES IR 2100z:
GOES IR 2130z:
CTC 2132z in Tripp and Lyman Co:
GOES IR 2144z:
CTC 2144z in Tripp and Lyman Co:
CIRA WRF Simulated IR 10.4 valid at 13 Jun 2200z:
GOES IR 2200z:
GOES IR 2230z:
CIRA WRF Simulated IR 10.4 valid at 13 Jun 2300z:
GOES IR 2300z:
CIRA WRF Simulated IR 10.4 valid at 14 Jun 0000z:
GOES IR 14 June 0014z:
FSD: Bad day for MESH in SD
Ended up getting some very large hail reports (at least 2.5 inches in Beadle County and Tea Cup Sized in Brule County). However, the MESH never got to 2 inches. The old school algorithm did not do much better – with largest of 2.25 in Brule County.
Daily Summary: 13 June 2012
Today, we started operations in the Albuquerque (NM) and Midland (TX) county warning areas. Another early-morning mesoscale convective system left an outflow boundary over west Texas. While the atmosphere recovered in its wake during the afternoon, storms developed in the less-capped/higher-terrain to the north. Forecasters Tim Tinsley and Jeff Garmon monitored the experimental products in Midland, while Mike Dutter, Randy Skov, Steve Nelson, and Ty Judd split duties in the Albuquerque (ABQ) CWA. The forecasters evaluated the CI, cloud-top-cooling, OUN WRF, and 3DVAR products.
This time, however, storms in the ABQ CWA struggled to maintain strength as they moved off the mountains. This prompted a domain switch of the southern ABQ forecasters (Dutter and Skov) to the Sioux Falls (FSD), South Dakota CWA and the northern ABQ forecasters (Nelson and Judd) to the Fort Worth, Texas CWA (storms were ongoing in both CWAs).
Upon arrival, the FSD crew immediately issued severe warnings. These warnings verified well, as hail up to the size of golfballs and a funnel cloud were observed in the CWA. The FWD crew also began issuing warnings as soon as they arrived in their CWA. By that time, two supercell thunderstorms were ongoing in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metro Area, producing hail up to the size of baseballs and one report of a funnel cloud. Substantial hail damage occurred over the densely populated suburbs of Irving and Grand Prairie. The 3DVAR products — as well as the OUN WRF in FWD — were interrogated during the event.
The Midland crew issued several warnings, using the OUN WRF, CI, and 3DVAR products. No reports were received, owing the sparse population of west Texas. The MESH in one storm, however, was up to 2.5 inches in diameter.
-G. Garfield, Week 5 Coordinator
FWD: New Supercells NE of Dallas
Two supercells have developed northeast of Dallas. These already appear capable of 2 to 3 inch hail and show better low level rotation than the Dallas supercells, based on 88D velocity and MRMS 0-2km azimuthal shear.
SNELSON/TY
FSD: Nice BWER with Brule County Storm
Classic BWER with the Brule County right moving supercell. Seeing the best azimuthal shear with this storm with nearly 15^s-1. Just got a funnel cloud report a little before 8 pm.
FSD: Supercells love us today.
Beautiful heart satellite signature with the splitting supercells in SD late this afternoon.
FSD: Brule TOR
Update — just got a report of a funnel cloud at 750pm south of Kimball with this storm. Still shows very strong azimuthal shear and the mesh is up to 1.65. Continue to see large updraft values as high as 17.
FWD: Good Initialization by 00Z OUNWRF
00 UTC OUNWRF intialization of composite reflectivity and surface updraft helicity over Dallas, TX
Corresponding radar reflectivity from KFWS at 0000 UTC
SNELSON/TY
FWD: Some Rotation Aloft with West Dallas Supercell
3DVAR 5km updraft helicity showing some enhanced values with the western supercell in the last 10 minutes.
MRMS 0-2km azmuthal shear confirms what we see in KFWS 88D base data that any rotation is above 2km.
SNELSON/TY