Here is what the PHS Comp Refl was forecasting for 5/24, 22Z across NV. How did it verify a few hours later?
MRMS 0.5 km Comp Refl at 22Z showed a broad area of convection over NV. What’s interesting is how some of the individual storms were very, very close to the locations where the forecast hinted at there being individual storms. Keep in mind, the radar coverage in this part of the country is not very dense. 
-Champion
Growing TCU was noted in the Octane Speed product around 2030Z (1530 CDT). While no lightning was detected by ENI, the Octane product indicated a growing trend in CI.
Octane Speed (Top Left), indicates a growing trend in cloud speed at the cloud top, indicating these cu are growing into a more strongly sheared environment.
– Rain-Free Bass Guitar
Octane indicates decent upper level divergence aloft in thunderstorm located east of Ft. Stockton 2240Z (1740 CDT). This prompted me to analyze the storm further with base radar data overlaid with ProbSvr v3.
Octane located in the upper left indicates strengthening values in the storm near Ft. Stockton. 
Further investigation analyzing base radar data with ProbSvr indicates the storm is still sub-severe.
– Rain-Free Bass Guitar
The quality of boundary layer moisture will be important to the severe convective threat across the MAF CWA today. Using the late morning split window difference field (within the RGB shown below), the greater moisture field can be found over northeastern portions of the CWA with the subtly greener shade of color. This color shade in the northeast generally overlaps with surface observations showing >60 F dew points. The color shade is more blue in central portions of the CWA where dew points drop into the upper 40s. While dew points are still lower in the southwest, there is a color shade difference where higher terrain exists (as well as greener vegetation). In this area early morning orographic convection had developed. By the mid afternoon, convection had developed near the moisture gradient in the south central portion of the CWA as well as near the northern moisture gradient along a surface low over the southwest New Mexico border.
The PHS forecast product agreed with the overall moisture gradient, where greater dew points and lower LCL’s draped the northeast corner of the CWA. Subsequently, the PHS MUCAPE product showed greater instability within this corridor.
PHS Dew Point
PHS LCL
PHS MUCAPE
Even with these satellite based products analyzing the moisture content well before the convective threat later today, it lines up well with the forecast greatest severe threat from today’s SPC outlook (shown below), with the Slight risk favoring the northeast portion of the county.
– Joaq
Thunderstorms advecting (and developing) from the west appear to be moving into a better thermodynamic environment. SB CAPE parameters between 3k and 4k J/KG analyzed by PHS across the northeastern counties of the MAF CWA lead me to believe storms will strengthen in the next couple hours as they move into this region. SB CAPE values from 3,000 to 4,000 J/KG are analyzed by PHS at 23Z.
– Rain-Free Bass Guitar
This is a great example of LightningCast application that could be used for TAF forecasts or DSS. As the image above shows you can see the chance of lightning slowly going up for the airport getting to around 20 to 30% before the first lightning strike within 10 miles and above 60% before the first strike before it hit within 5 miles. More localized research would have to be done to see the threshold for DSS and TAFS. But in this example if we used 30% threshold we would have a 15 to 20 minutes lead time before lightning got within 10 miles of the airport.
-Thunderstruck
ProbSevereV3 showed an 83% probsevere contour and an 80% probhail countor. With the Octane Speed Sandwich showing great storm top divergence, and high probsevere values, went ahead and issued a severe thunderstorm warning for the locations just south of our railroad DSS event. 
-Dwight Schrute
NUCAPS Forecast SBCAPE from 21Z through 01Z shows that the best instability will be across the central and eastern half of the CWA, while gradually shifting east through time. Storms seemed to match this well as they strengthened as they pushed farther east into the CWA.
-Dwight Schrute
Lightning Cast (parallax corrected) had a 75% contour for lightning within the next hour (screenshot taken at 21:51Z) for our railroad DSS event. Notified the DSS event about the high lightning potential within the next hour. Went back to look at radar and lightning data for 22:50 to 22:54Z and there were CG and CC strikes just north of the Railroad DSS event in Levelland, TX. This allowed us to give them an hour to make any ground preparations regarding personnel.
-Dwight Schrute
We were watching a storm as it pushed from New Mexico into Texas. First looking at Octane speed we quickly identified a cell with good speed shear as it pushed from Curry County into Parmer County. This is one great application of Octane. The ability to identify the cell with the biggest potential to become severe in a cluster of storms.
Looking at ProbSev V3 you can see the values for hail compared to V2 are very similar at the end. However, the bigger thing we noticed is that V3 picked up on the hail much earlier in the event compared to V2. We also noticed the chance of tornadoes in V2 was nearly zero while V3 was almost 20%. Looking at velocity I would agree with V3 as we did see some good rotation in the low to mid levels. As of this writing the storm has produced at least 2 inch hail. 
-Thunderstruck
