The image below shows the 1km composite updraft maximum (top left), 0.5 z, 1km surface maximum vorticity (bottom left), and the 1-5km updraft helicity (bottom right).  Although the 0.5 velocity data is not shown, it is contaminated and not very useful.  This makes the 3DVAR data extremely useful in identifying where the strongest low level rotation is located and the potential for a tornado.

CI continues to show promising results in terms of providing significant lead for strong/severe t-storms.

The first image below at 2115Z shows a strength of signal around 99 (red) in UAH-CI in the upper left pane for a developing storm west of Laredo.

The next image at 2125Z depicts -14C/15 min UW-CI (lower left) for the developing storm.

Radar imagery continued to show storm growth and the storm reached 50 to 55 dbz at 2208Z as shown in the upper right pane of the image below.  Also, MESH reached 1.18 inches at this time as well.

With these figures in mind, the lead time from initial CI detection on UAH-CI was around 55 min. and the lead time from UW-CI was around 45 min.  It would be great to put a product out conveying the possibility of strong storms when we first see these CI signals with an actual warning coming later.

AMS/Nunez

Top image – IR Satellite with CTC rates of -40C/15 min (dark looking region) ~25 minutess before
+60 dBZ @ ~32Kft (bottom image) were observed.

Synthetic WRF imagery was useful in making a convective forecast for Brownsville this afternoon.  At 13Z, the synthetic WRF depicted two areas of convection over TX with the south complex near Brownsville being slightly displaced to the south in location.  This convection was occurring in an area of high shear ahead of an upper level low progress slowly across the southwest U.S. (seen in synthetic and observed imagery).

13Z Synthetic:

13Z Observed IR/WV (top 2 panes):

At 19Z synthetic and observed IR/WV imagery matched up well with the southern complex, but over did convection to the south of the northern complex in TX.  Over Brownsville area, visible satellite imagery depicted a low broken cu field at 1914Z which matches low clouds in the synthetic IR imagery.

19Z Synthetic:

19Z Observed IR/WV (top 2 panes):

1914Z Visible Sat:

Conclusion:  The Synthetic WRF model seems to be doing an OK job overall so far today with a few issues.  However, it depicts the upper low driving convection today as well as 2 distinct areas of convection over TX.

For Brownsville area for the rest of the afternoon, synthetic images below predict convective initiation around 20Z with convection strengthening through the afternoon hours (22Z image), and then beginning to decrease in strength at 0Z.

20Z Synthetic:

22Z Synthetic:

0Z Synthetic:

AMS/Nunez

Several supercells have developed this afternoon along CRP’s northern CWA, in addition to an isolated tornadic supercell a few miles southwest of Corpus Christi.  At least 2 tornadoes have already been reported with the north eastern most storm, and the isolated storm near the coast.  The 0.5 degree reflectivity can be seen below on the left.  On the right, the top left panel shows the composite updraft maximum, the top right contains the max vorticity through the lowest 3 km, the bottom left is the reflectivity at -20C (very large hail with the one near Corpus Christi), and the bottom right the MESH.  The 3DVAR products on the right are about 5 minutes before the radar image.