Synthetic WRF imagery was useful in making a convective forecast for Brownsville this afternoon.  At 13Z, the synthetic WRF depicted two areas of convection over TX with the south complex near Brownsville being slightly displaced to the south in location.  This convection was occurring in an area of high shear ahead of an upper level low progress slowly across the southwest U.S. (seen in synthetic and observed imagery).

13Z Synthetic:

13Z Observed IR/WV (top 2 panes):

At 19Z synthetic and observed IR/WV imagery matched up well with the southern complex, but over did convection to the south of the northern complex in TX.  Over Brownsville area, visible satellite imagery depicted a low broken cu field at 1914Z which matches low clouds in the synthetic IR imagery.

19Z Synthetic:

19Z Observed IR/WV (top 2 panes):

1914Z Visible Sat:

Conclusion:  The Synthetic WRF model seems to be doing an OK job overall so far today with a few issues.  However, it depicts the upper low driving convection today as well as 2 distinct areas of convection over TX.

For Brownsville area for the rest of the afternoon, synthetic images below predict convective initiation around 20Z with convection strengthening through the afternoon hours (22Z image), and then beginning to decrease in strength at 0Z.

20Z Synthetic:

22Z Synthetic:

0Z Synthetic:

AMS/Nunez