ProbSevere Time Series

I utilized the ProbSevere Time Series in warning operations today (June 16, 2022) within the Pittsburgh, PA CWA.  With only using basic radar products and no other products  (that I’d normally use during warning operations), it was extremely helpful in warning decision making.  After issuing several warnings already and monitoring a storm quickly developing in the western portions of the CWA that was getting close to severe, I issued a warning based on an uptick in the ProbSevere Time Series (See Figure 1 vs Figure 2).  The uptick in ProbHail occurred within about 5-6 minutes or roughly 2 radar scans of the PBZ WSR-88D prompted a warning.  The storm continued for several minutes and regenerated about 30 minutes later that prompted another warning downstream (See Figure 3).

Figure 1: ProbSevere Time Series at 2056z

Figure 2: ProbSevere Time Series at 2100z

Figure 3: ProbSevere Time Series Plots.

– Podium