Large-scale upper low continues to spin across the Central Rockies this afternoon with broad cyclonic flow prevailing over much of the Southern Rockies.  On the mesoscale, latest data from the SRSOR 1-km visible satellite imagery shows along diffuse outlow boundary remnant of last night’s convection slowly sagging south across southern Texas. To its north, notable clearing ongoing this hour across much of central Texas into the Texas Hill County. Prevailing through with respect to today’s convective potential involves to possible areas, with the first likely kicking off sometime around 21z as isolated cells begin to develop across the Hill County in aforementioned clearing, while another round of shwrs/storms is expected to develop across the northwestern TX panhandle after the 02z time frame as shortwave energy slides across the region. After development, high-res models to include the HRRR and 3km TTU-WRF show this secondary area of convection congealing and forming into a forward-propagating MCS as it dives southeast across the Red Rvr Vly into northeastern TX during the early morning hrs.

In terms of severe potential for the experiment, the prevailing through going forward has been swayed to the Texas Hill Country area as latest rapid-refresh soundings show a gradual erosion of the cap by mid-afternoon as shortwave energy approaches and boundary layer heating continues.  If cap is able to erode, effective bulk shear of roughly 40-45 kts will support supercell structures with large hail and damaging winds being the main threats.  Latest All-Sky LAP layered precipitable water data showing low-level moisture surging westward into the Hill County and Concho Valley regions of central Texas this afternoon.  Combine this increased low-level moisture along with better forcing for ascent and the gradual erosion of the capping inversion, this region should see an increased liklihood for developing convection later this afternoon.

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