Pass came across with NUCAPS available at 20z. Looked at 19z data from a point close to AMA which launched an 18z sounding. First image is NUCAPS, Second image is the 18z AMA soundings. Differences notices were cooler temperatures above 300mb on the NUCAPS sounding. There was a small but more distinct cap near 800 mb on the AMA sounding. The freezing level and -20 level had dropped on both soundings compared to the 12z AMA sounding.

Lynford

The Probability Severe and ENI Thunderstorm Alerts seem to have differing opinions on a couple cells in the ABQ CWA.

At 1932Z, the cell to the north has a Dangerous Thunderstorm box, yet a prob severe of only 17%. Meanwhile, the southernmost cell has a prob severe of 78% but is only considered a “significant” thunderstorm.

At 1940Z, the prob severe of the south cell went up to 82% with no DTA, and the cell the the north went up to 43%. It’s interesting to note these cells are approaching the east/west boundary of the ENI Thunderstorm Alerts. No alerts showed up for the “east” algorithm either.

The storms are still pulsing down just as quickly as they develop. They really only look impressive for 1-2 volume scans. No hail or wind reports yet, just the funnel cloud near Roswell earlier.

-V. Darkbloom

Looking just beyond our LBB CWA to the south I noted a CI change from at 1845 UTC which showed 10% probability of convective initiation to a 70% probability at 1900 UTC.

However, when looking back at the radar loop starting at 1845 UTC which matches the first satellite image and continuing past 1900 UTC, we can see the development of an isolated convective cell.

At 1900 UTC a 39 dbz core was noted, so in this case the temporal resolution of the CI product (15 minutes) effectively resulted in a miss as the 35+ dbz was already present at the time the 70% probability was given.  This does not diminish the situational awareness value of the product.

Jack Bauer

Still monitoring storms across the ABQ area, but thus far they have been pulsing up and down with little maintenance. Here is a broad look at the area with ProbSevere overlayed on the radar.

The strongest storm is over the far southeastern part of the CWA, with a ProbSevere value around 77%. But looking at radar data, within the hail growth zone, seeing limited indications of severe hail. That is matched by the MRMS MESH output of right around 1″. Have not issued a warning for that storm at this point. -SRF

Today we are set up as WFO LBB in north central TX.  Water vapor imagery (upper left in image below) shows large upper low centered over the four corners region with broad cyclonic flow across NM/TX with plenty of dry air moving into the forecast area.  Visible imagery shows some general clearing across the area as thicker clouds moved out of the area from this morning.  Expect convection to develop later this afternoon as atmosphere destabilizes across the region with hail and damaging winds as the main threat. An initial look at the CI product (lower left in image below) is showing mainly low probabilities of initiation across the LBB CWA but there have been some higher probabilities to the west over NM closer to the core of the upper low where lapse rates are steeper and associated with the colder air aloft.

Looking at the GOES-R LAP precipitable water data the significant dry air is located in the 700-300mb level (lower left in the below image) which matches up well with RAP analysis soundings.    Not much on the radar this point to look at but will be monitor for developing convection.

Jack Bauer

Currently in the process of setting up in ABQ CWA for the afternoon and will provide a little bit of an overview.  Water Vapor imagery is showing a disutrbance shifting east across eastern New Mexico, as seen in the image below.

Already seeing convection over the area, both coming off the mountains and associated with the upper disturbance and also over the far eastern part of the cwa along the surface trough stretching south-southeast from the low in southeast Colorado.  While the convection coming off the higher terrain was already mature, the convective initiation product did pick up on the development of newer convection farther to the south and east of KROW.

As the storms continue to the east and into the higher instability shown on the GOES Sounder LAP CAPE, would expect the intensity of the storms to increase.

Finally, here is a look at the radar from 1842Z showing both of the areas of convection. Before developing this post, was planning on issuing a warning on a cell to the southwest of Mesa, NM, but technical issues with the Text Workstation inhibited the issuance. In the decision process, used the ProbSevere data to add confidence (increasing from 5% to 77% in about 15min) to the higher cores seen on the radar data.

SRF

GOES-R/CIMSS CAPE values continue to increase across southeastern portions of the Albuquerque, NM, area towards the southwestern portions of the AMA CWA. Values are not markedly high, on the order of 400-500 J/KG, but skies continue to clear in the wake of convection earlier this morning allowing for greater destabilization later this afternoon.

The UAH GOES-R convective initiation probabilities continue to also increase for southeastern portions of the ABQ CWA and southern portions of the AMA CWA. Reflectivities remain weak moving northeast in the southern AMA CWA, but expect coverage to increase as the storms move into the more favorable environment.

Brick Tamland

I’ll be starting out the day in ABQ. There is a short wave rotating through the region and convection has already fired off the higher terrain and is moving towards the NE. The GOES-R LAP CAPE and LI are enhanced in this area.

Interestingly, there has been very few CG lightning strikes with the stronger cells.

Time to go load up more data.

-V. Darkbloom

Briefing and water vapor loop showed short wave crossing north central New Mexico. Drying on Water vapor loop lines up with the clearing on the leading edge of the short wave. Better indications of CI in far sw CWA. CAPES have increased to near 1100 J/KG just south of the forecast area. Have DTA  set up and awaiting the next pass for NUCAPS availability.

Lynford

My warning operations will focus over the Lubbock CWA this afternoon.  Clearing of this morning’s cloud cover began to occur around 1830 UTC.  A cumulus field has quickly developed in the areas which cleared.  I will be watching the GOES CI Probability in this region as instability continues to increase.  GOES LAP CAPE values through the CWA range from 500 to 8000 J/kg, with some spotty areas of up to 1100 J/kg.