Looking just beyond our LBB CWA to the south I noted a CI change from at 1845 UTC which showed 10% probability of convective initiation to a 70% probability at 1900 UTC.

However, when looking back at the radar loop starting at 1845 UTC which matches the first satellite image and continuing past 1900 UTC, we can see the development of an isolated convective cell.

At 1900 UTC a 39 dbz core was noted, so in this case the temporal resolution of the CI product (15 minutes) effectively resulted in a miss as the 35+ dbz was already present at the time the 70% probability was given.  This does not diminish the situational awareness value of the product.

Jack Bauer