Best Practice: Look at lower left image on both Figure A and B (GLM Minimum Flash Area), notice Figure B has interpolate turned on which makes the product less useful since outer edges also have minimum values. The GLM Minimum Flash Area of interest jumped out much better on Figure A without interpolate turned on.
Blending both All Sky Sfc-900mb PW and Visible satellite imagery together for convection initiation in western TX panhandle.
First impression of the single radar AzShear……display is rather noisy with lots of couplets…many not associated with any storm. Perhaps if had the option to filter out negative values (blue) so can focus on positive values only would make for easier digestion of data and enhance SA. IN current state of product, would have have to be sure to compare to base velocity data, etc.
Azshear did help draw my attention to potential cyclic nature of the storm and picked up on increasing shear to northeast perhaps a little sooner than if I had not been looking at it. Pickup up on second circulation and locked on to it very well as second tornado(?) developed.
Azshear also seemed to highlight the shear along the RFD/Flanking line rather well.
0-2 km merged product provided similar information. Did not have good feel for 3-6 km product yet.
Again, biggest drawback is the noisiness of Azshear. I could see where this could distract from true area of shear associated with developing mesocyclone. Color enhancement could be improved as well.
AzShear helped identify a new developing circulation ahead of the reflectivity signature. This provided added SA in watching for new meso development. It also “might” help identify quick spin-ups along a surging bow echo or RFD. At first glance, false alarms appeared to be minimized but this was a fairly classic supercell case with at least one strong tornado and clear debris signature.
— S Coulomb
Here is one drawback of ProbSevere that has been briefly discussed. The areal extent of the identification is not based off of some of the features that feed into it, but rather the dBZ reflectivity representation. In this case, for a MCV and line of storms, the blob below is approximately 152 miles long using a center line to calculate the distance. ProbSevere kept this size of storm for two 2 minute calculations before breaking the storms apart into several different identifications.
ProbTor did a decent job on pinging the developing waterspout off of LIX’s coast. As for lightning, the MFA was the first to show a response that bore paying attention to, with the ED/FED products maxing out later, as the circulation tightened and the cell matured.
Now here is an example of where the single radar AzShear product would have provided me with some lead time with respect to grabbing my attention sooner in further interrogating a tightening circulation embedded within the heart of the QLCS. As for the merged products, I was unable to gain any insight with those products for what appears to be this relatively shallow circulation.
In watching for convection knowing that later in the simulation there will be tornadoes produced in the FL Panhandle, I took a peak at each product prior to convection. Single radar AzShear is a little far away and doesn’t pick up on it but the merged products give an early indication that a supercell is developing and beginning to rotate. Knowing this storm will produce a tornado this is very helpful as a heads up.
Looking at the 0-2km merged AzShear product, my attention was drawn to the line stretching to the SW of the KMXX radar. While I see utility in using this product more for SA, the SAILS artifact of not having the images lined up properly could lead to false interrogations of what’s actually occurring. In this first image (below), the wind field is apparent. In the second image, it looks like the wind field has separated. In the last image, it’s very clear that a slice being merged into the product shows the wind field significantly separated.
Beyond supercellular structures, it’s also clear that AzShear is a great indicator of outflow boundaries, and probably other phenomenon boundaries as well. It can be used as a pre-convective tool in examining where subsequent convection will fire as a result of a QLCS
The single radar AzShear product made a rapidly developing tornado very apparent, forcing my attention to be pulled to it (first image, below). Additionally, it was very interesting to see the RFD so clearly (second image, below). However, as noted previously, I do have some reservations about the number of false alarms that it may be picking up, as seen in the last image (below). But, there is a lot of promise for this product to serve as an enhanced SA tool and/or increase confidence in the warning decision-making process.