Mesoscale discussion using All Sky and SPC mesoanalysis page

Favorable 0-6km shear aloft from SPC Mesoanalysis page above across FWS CWA

All Sky Total PW above shows deeper moisture in southern FWS CWA.

High DCAPE values across the FWS area per SPC mesoanalysis page above


Mesoscale Discussion…40-50kts of wind shear aloft and high DCAPE values show conditions favorable for severe winds to occur, mainly for locations where  All Sky total PW shows strong moisture gradient along surface front in southern part of the CWA.

This is a loop of radar and All Sky LAP CAPE.  Notice the higher CAPE values in the southern part of the CWA. This is were linear convection could grow upscale become surface based and capable of produce damaging winds.  -Jake Johnson


The ProbSevere Wind spiked to 80% with a thunderstorm that later moved across southern FWS CWA, which was our area of concern.