Here i Just wanted to show that the overshooting top with Cirrus both thick and thin does have some problems. In this case the system appears to be batting 333. Or 1 for 3 attempts.

The 1st attempt was a complete miss for a cluster that had developed in a clearing over southeast Lincoln county. In all fairness this cluster may have not quite been fully developed yet, but did become the dominate cell of the group.

the 2nd Attempt was a hit for a cluster passing through southwest Lincoln county and southeast Elbert County.

The 3rd attempt is a false positive for central Elbert county.

Grant H.

At 2130Z, the CI product indicated a 90% probability of convective initiation in Lawrence County, IN.

Below is a loop of KIND 0.5Z between 2123Z and 2156Z.

Nothing had appeared radar as of this writing but I am waiting with anticipation….

~Linda

Above you have a 4-panel of MRMS with ProbSvr in the upper level and MRMS rotational shear in the lower level and MESH in the lower right. It is The southwest part of the 99% area is interesting here. Radar presentation would indicate that the area of the storm complex in the southwest is not severe, and MESH only indicates hail up to .3 to .4, but yet the area is still indicated at a 99% of severe. The output indicates that it is a mature storm. I am wondering if it is indicating a larger area than is necessary because it is a mature storm?

-JB

Before: 2028Z

After: 2116Z

So, here I wanted to show that often time the evolution of a storm environment can rely on how much moisture it is ingesting.  The Nearcast PW analysis in the exists in the upper right of both of these images. In the first image it shows a very narrow area of elevated PW to the north feeding into the storm early on with less moisture to the south. All this while the storm was in discrete mode. The second image shows the storm linearising out and spreading south. Along this newly developing line… a wall of higher PW has now appeared in the Nearcast analysis.

Grant H.

An increase with the overshooting top product was noted in Miami and Montgomery Counties as the base velocity products intensified and severe thunderstorm warnings were issued for strong winds.  This product detection was noted after the main hail and tornado threat, though 1 inch hail was also noted in Miami County.

– JRM

I decided to check out the Laps 20Z run to see if it was performing better than the previous runs.  As you can see from the maximum base reflectivity (bottom right) it is way over done especially with storms south of Parke County.  There are no storms there on actual radar (top left).  Not confident with this product today. ~Vollmar

LAPS instability shows a detailed view of the instability to the south of I71.  Storm structure evolution indicates weakening hail and tornado threats, but a strong wind threat will continue as long as the storms have warm, unstable air to propagate towards.  LAPS stability products also show weaker stability in the washed over atmosphere where previous convection has occurred.  Training convection moving into this environment is not as likely to become severe.

– JRM

Today, none of the NearCast products are usable in or around the IND CWA other than the storms appear to be lining up in and around potential areas of maxima for instability and moisture. Therefore, a fair assessment cannot be made with the theta-e or PW difference products.

Is there a way improve these products by potentially interpolating where there is missing data? Although that may not be feasible given the rather large areas that lack data across much of the center of the country.

~Linda