Probability of Severe

prob_svr_4_pan

Above you have a 4-panel of MRMS with ProbSvr in the upper level and MRMS rotational shear in the lower level and MESH in the lower right. It is The southwest part of the 99% area is interesting here. Radar presentation would indicate that the area of the storm complex in the southwest is not severe, and MESH only indicates hail up to .3 to .4, but yet the area is still indicated at a 99% of severe. The output indicates that it is a mature storm. I am wondering if it is indicating a larger area than is necessary because it is a mature storm?

-JB

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