GLM showed a lightning increase (5 fl/min @ 20:39 to 12 fl/min @20:44) prior to tornado report and TDS signature at 20:56. Once the circulation weakened the lightning rate also dropped back to 5 fl/min. The min Flash Area kept a consistent look as the updraft moved east-northeast.
–SCoulomb
ProbSVR time series graphs with the online version continues to be one of my favorite for tracking trends. Uncertain how to display this cleanly in AWIPS II? – Jake Johnson
Two supercells developed in far southwest Oklahoma along 0-3km CAPE gradient. At 1957Z ProbSVR Hail 10% Wind 39% Tor 3%, then 6 minutes later at 2003Z ProbSRV Hail 63% Wind 75% Tor 5% on the southern storm. GLM Total Optical Energy in lower left image performed well with the increase in lightning activity for both supercells. -Jake Johnson
Beginning to see CI in the southwest portion of OUN’s CWA. ProbSevere has progged a 3-4% tornado probability for two areas: the SW storm and a few weaker/young storms in the central CWA. GLM minimum flash area along with total optical energy clearly indicate that the SW storm is the most promising of the two with more persistent updraft(s). Subsequently, 0-2km merged AzShear has perked up with the storm in the southwestern portion of the CWA. Given the storm’s favorable environment (ample 0-3km CAPE, bulk shear, and SRH), this storm warrants watching. Based upon the combination of GLM data, ProbSevere/AzShear, and 1 minute satellite imagery, a forecaster can quickly hone in on the most pressing storms at the moment.
–Stanley Cupp
1937z KFDR base reflectivity with ProbSevere overlays (double contour –> tornado prob progged)
Top left: MRMS RALA; Top right: visibile sat plus 1 minute minimum flash area; Bottom left: 5 minute total optical energy w/ 1 minute updates; Bottom right: 1 minute total optical energy
0-2km merged AzShear
Figure 1936Z
Thunderstorm developing in southwest Oklahoma along 0-3km CAPE boundary with GLM showing first signs of lightning. If this storm remains attached to this boundary the environment supports possible tornadic development. ProbTOR is showing 3% with this early development Figure 1936Z. -Jake Johnson
A positive for AZ-Shear product it does not show range folding like base velocity/SRM products. Might be useful tip. -Jake Johnson
GOES-16 Sandwich Product showing a nice above anvil cirrus plume. ProbSVR showing 99% for large hail and Tor prob 5% with nice double rings. GLM Min Flash area remained in place with overshooting top of this supercell.
Loop showing the evolution of a strong cell west of Del Rio in Mexico. Prob Severe values were dominated by Prob Hail in this case. This hail threat makes sense given mesoanalysis and storm mode, supported by 12z Del Rio sounding. Peak values around 97% occurred before the storm split, but after peak dbz values observed on radar. This makes sense considering the beam height at this range (165 mi from MAF) was showing the mid-level core at 30kft MSL – hail would likely have needed time to fall out from this height. This case could be useful for offices with high radar beam heights distant from isolated thunderstorms. Prob Tor did nudge up around the time of the storm split enough to show the ‘double contour’, however V data at low levels was not present.
Same storm now with GLM Event Density. This data showed a lightning decrease around the time that the storm split. Following the split, almost 0 lightning was observed in the southern cell, while the left split saw a spike in event density. The left split reinvigorated shortly after the split while the right mover weakened.
This is the same loop with radar overlaid that shows the storm split and this time flash extent density. Almost 0 lightning data seen in the south cell.
Figure A
Figure B
Best Practice: Look at lower left image on both Figure A and B (GLM Minimum Flash Area), notice Figure B has interpolate turned on which makes the product less useful since outer edges also have minimum values. The GLM Minimum Flash Area of interest jumped out much better on Figure A without interpolate turned on.
Figure C
Blending both All Sky Sfc-900mb PW and Visible satellite imagery together for convection initiation in western TX panhandle.
This is an example how the DSS meteorologist could use RGB imagery, gridded lightning products, CG lightning, and range rings for event support.
In this case – we are a HYPOTHETICALLY supporting the Panama City Music Festival denoted by the 10nm range rings. Process would be to monitor products to predict when lightning is likely to impact an highly vulnerable population.
ProbTor did a decent job on pinging the developing waterspout off of LIX’s coast. As for lightning, the MFA was the first to show a response that bore paying attention to, with the ED/FED products maxing out later, as the circulation tightened and the cell matured.
~Gritty
