EWP Blog

Today I tried to focus on the LightningCast and Stoplight Charts by comparing them. I noticed that in the case of lightning approaching, the probabilities on the dashboard went up. While version 2 in Figure 1 shows a blip around 20:15z, this was validated by a storm up to the north of the Airport which had lightning near 10 miles of the site. Version 1 had more of a persistent gradual increase which began sooner than Version 2. Version 1 would have most likely given more of a lead time than a quick ramp up.

Figure 2 represents the same timestamp as Figure 1 and shows the lightning increasing in coverage as storms approach. Figure 3 is a screenshot of the current lightning and LightningCast probabilities. The Stoplight Chart did very well with the area that the lightning was occurring.

Figures 4-6 show similar images but this time as the storms passed by. One thing I noticed was the LightningCast probabilities dropped off dramatically while lightning was still around the area. The lightning Stoplight Chart, in my opinion, handled the ramp down better with a more gradual end to the lightning.

So, it was interesting to see that both of them did fairly well ramping up lightning probabilities which increases confidence in forecasting and giving lead time for lightning DSS. However, there was a noticeable difference with the end time since the Stoplight Chart kept showing red over the area, meaning lightning was either nearby or occurring whereas the LightningCast rapidly dropped probabilities.

Overall, they both did well and they were both useful with lead/end times of lightning.

Figure 2: Lightning Stoplight red boxes approached the 10 mile ring as lightning was approaching.

Figure 3: LightningCast showed the probabilities of lightning pretty well as lightning was occurring and approaching the site.

Figure 4: LightningCast ramped down the chances for lightning very quickly as storms passed.

Figure 5: Lightning Stoplight Chart kept lightning within the ring as storms passed.

Figure 6: LightningCast on AWIPS ramped down lightning very quickly as storms passed.

-Batman

On the last full day of the Hazardous Weather Testbed, we monitored convection over the Dodge City (DDC), KS County Warning Area (CWA). We were responsible for issuing convective warnings and providing IDSS to two mock DSS events, the Sunflower Balloon Festival near Dodge City, and the Emerald City Oz Festival in Liberal, KS.

The near thermodynamic environment over the Dodge City, KS CWA was characterized by moist mid-levels atop deep, well-mixed boundary layer profiles and steep low-level lapse rates as sampled by the special 18Z DDC sounding. The sounding revealed modest CAPE values around 766 J/kg,  but also significant CINH values of over 400 J/kg. See image below.

Figure 1 above: 18Z DDC RAOB showing a classic inverted-V sounding.

While numerous thunderstorms developed across southwest KS, most of the storms remained below severe levels with several wind reports between 38 and 47 kt, likely due to the combination of the inverted-V thermodynamic environment and gradient winds. See Figure 2 below.

Figure 2 above: LightningCast V2 & Stoplight combined procedure showing numerous thunderstorms affecting southwest and south central KS.

Figure 3 above: shows the Fire channel (left) and the Fire Temperature RGB (right). Around 2016 UTC, GOES-East CONUS 5-minute imagery detected a fire south of Richfield in Morton County in southwest KS. The Fire Temperature RGB showed some white pixels at times indicating that this fire was having a strong heat signal in all of the three channels in this RGB indicating a very hot intense fire, this despite being obscured intermittently by mid-high level clouds.

Figure 4. A VIIRS pass around 2021 UTC also indicated an intense fire in southwest KS with energy being emitted in the 101 to 350 Mega Watts range.

Overall, this was a day of dangerous fire weather conditions with dry thunderstorms producing marginally severe wind gusts. It is possible that this fire was ignited by lightning. Red Flag Warnings were in effect for southwest KS and the OK and TX panhandles.

-Hurricane Specialist