Looking back through the data after receiving the tornado report at 2232, there was a peak in Torp probability of 50% around 2217 meaning if that threshold was used as a decision point of going with a warning, given other radar data supported a warning, it would have provided 15 min of lead time. VR Shear never got to 20kts and while there was a couplet the values were not that impressive and no strong gate to gate signature. Also of note the DivShear continued to show a stronger signal with higher values than AzShear in this weaker storm case. I think this case also shows the importance of mesoanalysis and knowing that there was a boundary (warm front) this storm was attached to.

Flash