EWP Blog – Page 276 – Spring Experiments & Beyond

ABQ-S – Great start for CIRA WRF Simulated imagery in Lincoln Co

Posted in Live Blogs on June 13, 2012 by Greg Stumpf.

The simulated IR imagery for the ABQ CWA has initiated well with convection over Lincoln Co developing between 19-20z and the overall cirrus shield over the sw US.

Fcst valid at 13 Jun 20z:

GOES IR 13 Jun1959z:

FDX 0.5 Z 13 Jun 2003z

Will be watching for new convection in eastern Torrence Co and western Guadalupe co by 2100z.

CIRA Sim IR valid at 2100z:

GOES IR 13 Jun 2059z:

FDX 0.5 Z 13 Jun 2103z

CIRA Sim IR valid at 2200z:

GOES IR 13 Jun 2159z:

FDX 0.5 Z 13 Jun 2201z

Overall, CIRA Simulated imagery did very well with convection location and timing.

ABQ South — OUNWRF gets excited about wind

Posted in Live Blogs on June 13, 2012 by Kristin Calhoun.

The 19z run of the OUNWRF is doing well initializing the storm development at 20z. Then, it goes nuts with the wind potential by 22z with 20-25 m/s max wind gusts with mediocre looking type cells. Not sure what to think about this, but if nothing else it may imply that we may need to take a closer look at wind today vs yesterday. MRD/RZ

MAF – Waiting for Storm Initiation near Alpine

Posted in Live Blogs on June 13, 2012 by Kristin Calhoun.

Forecast models are pointing toward the Davis Mountains region for convective initiation. The latest OUN WRF is again early with convective initiation east of Fort Davis around 20z.

HRRR model shows the same location but just a bit later, between 20 and 21z.

Visible satellite image at 1930z shows quite a bit of mid-level clouds but there was an isolated higher strength of signal for convective initiation south of Alpine. Higher moisture was located just east of the Davis Mountains with lower to mid 60s dewpoint temperatures west of the Pecos River.

EWP 2012 – Tim/Jeff

ABQ South — 1st severe storm of the day??????

Posted in Live Blogs on June 13, 2012 by Kristin Calhoun.

Will need to watch the storm over Lincoln County. CTC product shows -31c/15min with the storm and it is moving into very stout instability as it moves off the terrain. Will probably warn if we start to see better radar returns aloft. MRD/RS

Update at 2045 — Looks like the “storm” over Lincoln County has nearly dissipated as it exited to the east. Looks like the CTC gave us a false alarm — probably due to the echo developing on the terrain. Will see if this can develop better as it moves east (although the OUNWRF and HRRR would suggest not).

ABQ North: OUN WRF Initialzing Well Today

Posted in Live Blogs on June 13, 2012 by Kristin Calhoun.

First echoes on the KABX radar is matching up well with the 18z run of the OUN WRF. Timing and placement are very close to reality.

The KABX radar at the same time:

CI and Cloud top cooling products are showing strong returns on the elevation. We’ll see if they pan out.

Unfortunately, if the OUN WRF is correct, only a few storms will develop and move east this afternoon/evening.

OUTLOOK: 13 June 2012

Posted in Outlooks on June 13, 2012 by Gabe Garfield.

Today, we are focused on two areas for severe convective development. The first is in the southern High Plains, where rich, deep moisture resides beneath a very potent elevated mixed later. As surface temperatures warm, strong to extreme instability is expected to develop over west Texas into eastern New Mexico. However, kinematic profiles are marginally favorable for the development of organized convection. Nevertheless, the degree of available potential energy suggests that this area should be watched for severe weather.

The second area is located in the central and northern Plains. An upper-tropospheric trough is emerging onto the Plains this afternoon, and resultant pressure falls will create a kinematic environment favorable for the development of organized storms. However, the moisture is limited and the lapse rates are only moderate where moisture quality is the greatest. Nevertheless, we will monitor this area for convective development.

-G. Garfield, Week 5 Coordinator

Daily Summary: 12 June 2012

Posted in Daily Summaries on June 12, 2012 by Greg Stumpf.

Today, we started operations in the Albuquerque (NM), Midland (TX), and Lubbock (TX) county warning areas. An early-morning mesoscale convective system left an outflow boundary over west Texas. While the atmosphere recovered in its wake during the afternoon, storms developed in the less-capped/higher-terrain to the north. In this convective episode, multicell clusters were the dominant mode, and the Albuquerque forecasters (Mike Dutton and Jeff Garmon) issued several warnings (a few hail reports were received).

In the Midland and Lubbock CWAs, the onset of convection was delayed, compared to the expectations derived from the OUN WRF and HRRR forecasts. As a result, the decision was made to move the Lubbock forecasters (Ty Judd and Tim Tinsley) to the Amarillo CWA to assess the 3DVAR products in storms that approached the area from Colorado. However, after only a short while, the storms decreased in intensity, prompting a move back to the Lubbock CWA.

By 6:30 p.m., convection developed in earnest in the southeastern portions of the Albuquerque CWA, promising to move toward the Midland and Lubbock CWAs. The Midland forecasters (Steve Nelson and Randy Skov) issued multiple severe warnings for multicells and supercells. The Lubbock forecasters issued a few warnings for left-movers that originated with the Midland convection.

-G. Garfield, Week 5 Coordinator

EWP STATUS FOR 13 JUNE 2012: 1-9pm SHIFT

Posted in Operations Status Message on June 12, 2012 by Greg Stumpf.

EWP STATUS FOR 13 JUNE 2012: 1-9pm SHIFT

On Wednesday, we will begin our shift at 1 p.m. The operational models depict a weak shortwave trough entering the northern Plains, which may serve as a focus for convection in its vicinity. While forecast thermodynamic profiles are supportive of severe convection over a broad portion of the Plains, forecast kinematic profiles are not as favorable. There may be some juxtaposition of the aforementioned in the central Plains, but it is unclear at this time where this may occur. Therefore, we will wait until tomorrow to suggest possible CWAs suitable for product evaluation.

– G. Garfield, Week 5 Coordinator

MAF: Evolution of Storm over Gaines County, TX

Posted in Live Blogs on June 12, 2012 by Greg Stumpf.

3DVAR captured an semi-interesting evolution of a storm over SW Gaines County in far west TX. Notice the increase in updraft and updraft helicity prior to an increase in MESH hail size. SEly inflow south of the storm was also strong in the 3DVAR 1km wind. The images are from 0040, 0050, and 0100 UTC on 13 June.