EWP Blog

CIMMS CTC now showing -31C/15 min over southern Chavos county in SE NM at 2245 UTC.Could be in the MAF CWA within an hour or two.

MRMS fields show the storm is becoming more substantial at 2304 UTC, but not quite severe. ~52dBZ reflectivity at -20C for last 5-10 min but MESH only around 0.5 in.

SNELSON/SKOV

CTC values around -31C/15 min over southern Chaves county.  Forecasting storm development southern Chaves moving into Eddy.  Last radar scans starting to show midlevel echoes down there at 2255Z.

Garmon/Dutter

Current severe storm situation and warning polygons at 2230Z.  Cu field over and just east of the mountains east of ABQ are showing some enhancement with UAH CI values of 70 to 95.  May get initiation east of ABQ…but it appears the plains over eastern NM are still capped off to some degree judging from the visible imagery.

Watching the outflow off the stronger storms over NE NM to fire off new convection along the NM/TX border West of AMA next couple of hours as indicated by OUN WRF.

EWP Forecasters Garmon/Dutter

First warned storm of the day at MAF over Reeves/Pecos county line. This is on a psuedo-dryline where temps are in the 90s and dewpoints in the 50s with strong ESEly flow. MRMS showed this storm well with 62dBZ at -20C and 1.5 inch MESH.

The CIMMS CTC product also showed significant cooling with this storm as it was developing. The 2215 UTC image overlaid with sfc obs and Vis satellite shows the boundary as well as the significant cloud top cooling (around -28C/15 minutes).

Also noticed a little earlier at 2115 UTC that Ft Stockton/Pecos co airport had 98F/56F with a 11017G24kt wind. The Pecos Municipal airport (KPEQ) had 100F/53F with a 08009kt wind. The CTC was just ramping up at that time with -8C/15min.

This storm is moving very little as new updrafts from on the western flank, but winds aloft are fairly weak this far south. If this storm persists for more than an hour, localized flash flooding could be a big issue.

Randy noted that the 21Z OUNWRF forecast this cell pretty well. Previous runs of the OUNWRF did not show much deep convection this far south.

SNELSON/SKOV

Starting to see values around 70 east of ABQ.  May get some convective initiation east of ABQ south of main area of convection now.  Visible shows Cu field growing east of ABQ and towards the TX Panhandle.  Can this be a hint that the development advertised by the OUN WRF just south of the current convective line over NE NM may pan out at little sooner than expected? Here is a look at the latest radar composite…

EWP Forecasters Garmon/Dutter

Storms have had a hard time initiating this afternoon. In fact, very little has occurred since 2 pm. The OUN WRF has continued to initiate thunderstorms early, as shown below:

The 88D at the same time:

Subsidence behind the MCS moving through central Texas continues to expand toward the southwest. The cumulus fields that were present quickly go away:

However, the winds over our southeast border have become more out of the southeast with occasional gusts over 30 mph. We are still hopeful that CI will occur over the next 1 to 2 hours. The most likely area for initiation will be over eastern New Mexico, which has shown more development based on the visible satellite.

CTC rates have increased to around -19C/15 min over past 2 passes.  Watching down around Chaves County in SE NM now for potential for convective initiation.   OUN WRF does not indicate these storms will get very strong when they develop.

EWP Forecasters Dutton/Garmon

Just issued a new Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Colfax and small part of Union County.

Note the FSI cross section…

CI products from the past hour really didn’t seem to give an indicator of increasing storm strength here.

As previously posted, the only forecast tool that gave a hint of strengthening storms in this area was the OUN WRF.

EWP Forecasters Dutter/Garmon

Latest run of OUN WRF at 20z still paints convective initiation to occur over the southern portion of the South Plains for 2030z.

Looking at satellite imagery with convective initiation overlaid, convection still is struggling to grow over the region. May be another indication that the OUN WRF initiates convection too soon. But still think that the area will still see organized convection but just a bit later.

Tim/Ty

17, 18 and 19z OUN WRF initiated convection in Lea Co and other counties to the southeast by 19-20z.  The CIRA WRF 10.4um simulated IR imagery also developed convection in northeast Pecos Co by 20z, but convection has not developed in MAF CWA per the 20z Goes IR image.  Skov The 1902z UAH-CI Sfc CI also indicated a small area of 90% CI in Lea Co that matched well with the OUN WRF fcst, but the cell did not develop.  Skov

NRE/NRW GOES Vertical Theta-E increasing in Mitchell & Scurry counties in far ne MAF CWA by 2300z.  values 24-25K