OUTLOOK: 13 June 2012

Today, we are focused on two areas for severe convective development.  The first is in the southern High Plains, where rich, deep moisture resides beneath a very potent elevated mixed later.  As surface temperatures warm, strong to extreme instability is expected to develop over west Texas into eastern New Mexico.  However, kinematic profiles are marginally favorable for the development of organized convection.  Nevertheless, the degree of available potential energy suggests that this area should be watched for severe weather.

The second area is located in the central and northern Plains.  An upper-tropospheric trough is emerging onto the Plains this afternoon, and resultant pressure falls will create a kinematic environment favorable for the development of organized storms.  However, the moisture is limited and the lapse rates are only moderate where moisture quality is the greatest.  Nevertheless, we will monitor this area for convective development.

-G. Garfield, Week 5 Coordinator

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Daily Summary: 12 June 2012

Today, we started operations in the Albuquerque (NM), Midland (TX), and Lubbock (TX) county warning areas.  An early-morning mesoscale convective system left an outflow boundary over west Texas.  While the atmosphere recovered in its wake during the afternoon, storms developed in the less-capped/higher-terrain to the north.  In this convective episode, multicell clusters were the dominant mode, and the Albuquerque forecasters (Mike Dutton and Jeff Garmon) issued several warnings (a few hail reports were received).

In the Midland and Lubbock CWAs, the onset of convection was delayed, compared to the expectations derived from the OUN WRF and HRRR forecasts.  As a result, the decision was made to move the Lubbock forecasters (Ty Judd and Tim Tinsley) to the Amarillo CWA to assess the 3DVAR products in storms that approached the area from Colorado.  However, after only a short while, the storms decreased in intensity, prompting a move back to the Lubbock CWA.

By 6:30 p.m., convection developed in earnest in the southeastern portions of the Albuquerque CWA, promising to move toward the Midland and Lubbock CWAs.  The Midland forecasters (Steve Nelson and Randy Skov) issued multiple severe warnings for multicells and supercells.  The Lubbock forecasters issued a few warnings for left-movers that originated with the Midland convection.

-G. Garfield, Week 5 Coordinator

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EWP STATUS FOR 13 JUNE 2012: 1-9pm SHIFT

EWP STATUS FOR 13 JUNE 2012: 1-9pm SHIFT

On Wednesday, we will begin our shift at 1 p.m.  The operational models depict a weak shortwave trough entering the northern Plains, which may serve as a focus for convection in its vicinity.  While forecast thermodynamic profiles are supportive of severe convection over a broad portion of the Plains, forecast kinematic profiles are not as favorable.  There may be some juxtaposition of the aforementioned in the central Plains, but it is unclear at this time where this may occur.  Therefore, we will wait until tomorrow to suggest possible CWAs suitable for product evaluation.

– G. Garfield, Week 5 Coordinator

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MAF: Evolution of Storm over Gaines County, TX

3DVAR captured an semi-interesting evolution of a storm over SW Gaines County in far west TX. Notice the increase in updraft and updraft helicity prior to an increase in MESH hail size. SEly inflow south of the storm was also strong in the 3DVAR 1km wind. The images are from 0040, 0050, and 0100 UTC on 13 June.

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LUB – Yoakum County Storm

3DVAR shows a steady increase in strength with the storm over Yoakum County.  The updraft strength has intensified to 21 m/s at 0100z with updraft helicity increasing 111 m/s2 at 0100 and 169 m/s2 at 0105z.

Reissued warning for storm moving toward Cochran County with large hail indicated.

Latest 3dvar indication continued organization with updraft increasing to 23 m/s and updraft helicity approaching 200 m/s2.

Tim/Ty

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Time To Update Guadalupe DeBaca Storm Warning…OUNWRF Considerations…0045Z ABQ Update

Time to update our SVR for the storm moving southeast out of Guadalupe County.  Latest OUNWRF showing a more southeastward progression with this storm (not suggesting a split)…so we are issuing d new SVR to the southeast for the next hour.  Also, CTC rates are showing a -15.5C/15 min to the east.

Here is the latest cross section from the DeBaca storm…

…and the MESH just jumped to 2.5 inches…

…and last but not least is a pretty good TBS off that storm…

Garmon/Dutter

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MAF: “Worst Testbed Polygon Ever”?

Forces are conspiring against me. The SVR polygon was originally issued this way.

Over the next 45 minutes, the two storms split and the left-mover from the original eastern storm split again. All the storms eventually moved at 60-90 deg angles away from the original track.

The coup de grace was the “right-mover” from the second split later showed a very strong antimesocyclone from KLBB. It is also moving VERY slowly SW. Will have to upgrade to a TOR and probably a FFW.  Ug.

Glad these warnings aren’t going anywhere…..or are they?

SNELSON

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LBB: Finally a Thunderstorm (and it’s Severe)

Issued a severe thunderstorm warning for Yoakum county. A splitting supercell over Lea county New Mexico moved north-northeast toward Yoakum county. Although the most severe portion of the storm looked to remain west of our CWA border, a new updraft on the east side developed and moved toward/into the southwest corner of the storm.

MESH showed max hail of around quarter size, but opted to go slightly higher based on anticipated updraft strength.

Update:

The storm has begun to surge northeast. LBB radar now shows 60 dbz to almost 40kft. MESH product has shown some increase to ~1.5, but had not responded yet to the strengthening supercell. Added 2″ diameter hail to the warning, as well as gusts aoa 60 mph.

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