Today, we are focused on two areas for severe convective development. The first is in the southern High Plains, where rich, deep moisture resides beneath a very potent elevated mixed later. As surface temperatures warm, strong to extreme instability is expected to develop over west Texas into eastern New Mexico. However, kinematic profiles are marginally favorable for the development of organized convection. Nevertheless, the degree of available potential energy suggests that this area should be watched for severe weather.
The second area is located in the central and northern Plains. An upper-tropospheric trough is emerging onto the Plains this afternoon, and resultant pressure falls will create a kinematic environment favorable for the development of organized storms. However, the moisture is limited and the lapse rates are only moderate where moisture quality is the greatest. Nevertheless, we will monitor this area for convective development.
-G. Garfield, Week 5 Coordinator
