Official websites use .gov
A
.gov website belongs to an official government
organization in the United States.
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A
lock (
) or https:// means you’ve safely connected to
the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official,
secure websites.
Even though we aren’t dealing with linear storms, these two cells are still close enough in proximity for the ProbSevere model to merge them. Out of curiosity, I wonder if the cell’s proximity to the radar will impact the model. Or if the model would be more useful in this situation since we can’t sample the storm as well. -BT
Things firing quickly here in North Platte. Lightning data and ProbSevere was helpful in warning issuance without having much situational awareness. Seems to be accurate at the moment.
-BT
Have some cirrus crossing the region from earlier storms to our west. Have some new cells firing up along a frontal boundary just west of our region. This front is indicated in our region as a narrow line of weak cumulus clouds. Temperatures south of the front are in the low 90s with dewpoints in the low 60s. North of the boundary temperatures are in the upper 80s with dewpoints in the upper 50s. LAP Sounder data is masked by the cirrus, but earlier readings in the clear sky had a gradient bisecting our county warning area, basically south of the front.
North Platte soundings modified for current temp/dewpoint is similar to SPC mesoanalysis for the region, with CAPEs in the 3-4 k range and limited inversions, if any. Thus will be watching for cells developing along the front and
Boundary positioned today over LOT CWA. Small amount of CIN remaining but Convective temps are expected to be reached shortly across much of the area. Goes_R parameters are showing CAPES in excess of 3000 across the western portions of the CWA. These 18Z values are showing somewhat less than what we are currently seeing on the SPC Meso-analysis, but this may be due to the sharp increase in capes over the last several hours over 2000 increase in some areas. Other indicies (LI, TT and showalter) are all sufficient to support severe weather…effective bulk shear is also about 25-30KT. Given the instability and shear the main threats will be for damaging winds and hail.
Inthecards/wacha
HUGE LAP RAP GFS CAPE differences noted in LBF area. The LAP CAPE is 250 J/kg, First guess GFS ~ 900 J/kg MUCAPE while SPC/RAP is showing 2500 MLCAPE and 3000 MUCAPE. Explosive development is now taking place near LBF. So my guess is the LAP CAPE is seriously underdone. MrSnow/Brick Tamland
– Large differences are because you are comparing LAP CAPE (which is closest to SBCAPE) to GFS and RAP MUCAPE. Of course MUCAPE will be higher, sometimes significantly, than SBCAPE. I would suspect the GFS first guess had weak instability, which is why the LAP would be low as well – BL
One thing we quickly noticed was that the CAPE values from the LAP algorithm were nowhere near the values represented on the mesoanalysis page. Part of the problem seemed to be due to the obscuring cirrus over 2/3rds of the forecast area. Attached is the latest image and a loop of the CAPE retreating east as the high clouds move in.
-Shasta
Very pronounced TBSS on a cell just north of KMSP. Storm has produced golf ball size hail at 713 CST. NOAA/CIMMS Severe Prob near 90%. Not crazy about the color bar right over the top of the base data color bar. Maybe it could go just below? MrSnow.
Perfect example across SD how the CI model has a tough time when switching from day (1st image) to night mode (2nd image). The outer edges of the storms are assigned a low percentage (~20%).
An increase in the CIMSS prob severe gave us higher confidence to issue this warning for this storm over you can see a jump in the lightning also near the time the prob severe increased it’s prob.
