EWP Blog

Looked at this briefly. Looping quickly, we were able to track the inflow to our storms in LBF. The overshooting top algorithm jived with the strongest storms in the DMA across SE Lincoln Co. -BT

ProbSevere not as high (still around 30%), reflectivity aloft is increasing.  Had ~45 dbZ up to 40 kft.

Cell perking up in the northeast CWA.  ProbSevere up to 31%.  Lighting is increasing as well as DVIL.  50 dbZ height up over 30 kft now as well.

Finally have the cell to our west edging into our region.  Given quite a bit of anvil clouds likely cooling that region down, would expect less winds.  Also line is showing evidence of weakening some.  Put out SPS for 40 mph and possible nickel-sized hail, despite upstream reports of some larger hail.

NUCAPS sounding just south of the front modified to similar values of CAPE/DCAPE to RUC soundings.

Still no CI over the area, though we have had some cells develop.

Hail reports of 1″ (1905z) and 1.25″ (1930z) from Wellfleet have come in. First warning came out at 1909z which covered the second report, but missed the first. ProbSevere is helping out big time! MESH hail has been pretty good so far. -BT

Manipulated surface to match current values of 70 Dew point and 88 Temp to the NUCAPS sounding at 1731Z. CAPES registered at 4800 J/Kg…which was consistent with the SPC mesoscale analysis.

Did not end up with a CI marker for the cells developing in this region.  Did have some thin cirrus up here.

Precip placement potential shows a narrow convergent signal close to higher precip, northeast of current storms in North Platte’s area.  Otherwise, area is pretty quiet.

Cell in North Platte’s area forecast by DTA to stay out of our CWA.  Still close enough to keep watch on, especially should in build to the east.