EWP Blog

Seeing this cell perk up again in Dawson county.  Had a brief overshooting top signal there as well as higher DVILs.  Decided to go with an SPS there, given what should be a fairly stable low level airmass given earlier cells.

Another case of the bright pink contour grabbing my attention from writing previous blog post. Cell not in area yet, but will be watching as it moves NE into our CWA.

-BT

Didn’t use CI at all today. Didn’t have any “pings” >30% in our CWA when shift started before storm development. Cells quickly formed and anvil clouds quickly covered majority of our area preventing any further percentages.

-BT

DVIL coming down from all radars.  Higher dbZ’s now in the low 22 kft range.  Lightning coming down

ProbSevere down as well, time series on the southernmost cell dropping off as well.

Continue to have an overshooting top.  Also heard a report from a neighboring CWA of 57 mph winds in Custer county, a little out ahead of my previous warning box.  Decided to go ahead and issue a downstream warning to cover that area as well.

Still have tall cells in the middle, matching up with that good OT.

Plenty of cloud to cloud lightning, but notice on the upper right the time series following the storm.  The storm tracking “blobs” merged and broke up several times.

CI product starting to show some promise in the CU field to the west of Chicago. It has been obscured some by the higher cloud.

OT product showed a good updraft.  Also saw signal for a strong updraft in the Dawson county part of the line with 60+ knots inbound winds at the storm top.

ProbSevere should not be useful, given this cell had been around for awhile and was more of a line, but still high.  Time series showed lightning dropping though further inspection showed lots of cell mergers and breaks occurring.Cell was tall still in the upper tilts, higher dbZ.

Using 8km 5min total lightning grid and plot along with cell flash rate tracking, polygons, dangerous thunderstorm alerts to watch lightning trends. Kept the time series visible on the right.  Cell trended toward zero so letting the warning expire.  We did have a few instances where cells merged so lightning went to zero in the initial cell.

Keeping an eye on the one-minute GOES super rapid scan with the CI product. You can clearly see the boundary and the lake breeze boundary on the satellite loop. You can see a weak shortwave denoted by the blue area on the CI product…we are thinking that once this intersects with the other boundaries we will get enough lift to break the weak cap and initiate convection.

All the action across SE Lincoln Co has been becoming more and more disorganized. Decided to not reissue warning. The significant drop in lightning helped to back that thinking. -BT