Similar Soundings

Modified NUCAPS sounding near ILX is pretty similar to KILX special sounding taken at 17Z!  MUCAPES both around 3000 and LI -9.

Values similar to AllSky at 18Z.

Those CAPE values near 2500 J/kg…also similar.

This similarity gives us some confidence in new forecasts, especially in clear sky regions out ahead in the AllSky data.

The forecast NUCAPS CAPE does not show much to the south of our line…and based on clear skies and warm conditions to the south would tend to lean away from this forecast.



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Springfield Illinois Storms

Right now I’m analyzing the various new products to nowcast where and when storms will intensify. Currently I’m comparing ALLsky cape to the mesoanalysis from the spc. Right now the mesoanalysis is higher with cape compared to allsky. Over our area the it’s cloudy so the it’s taking data from the GFS.

A cell in our western counties ramped up very quickly while our computers were down. Prob severe immediately directed our eye to the cell. The probsevere lined  up with an uptick in vil values and velocity.

I’m comparing the actual sounding to what’s shown on nucaps, and allsky to see what’s initializing the best. The actual sounding shows 3025kj of surface lavyer cape and 1453 of mixed layer.

Around the same time allsky shows a similar value of cape.

The modified sounding was closest to the actual sounding with 1515kj of mixed layer cape

The nonmodified sounding is much lower when it comes to mixed layer and surface cape. In the case the modified sounding was more reliable and gave a more accurate picture of the current state of the atmosphere.

The all sky cape was much higher, around 2300kj.

That increase might be due to the fact that the sampled area of interest was filled in by the GFS. Whatever input the GFS was taking into might have lead to it overestimating the amount of CAPE.

I’m also looking at GLM products to see trends with convection. The combination of event density and GLM minimum flash area help me to see the rapidly growing updrafts as well as cell that are producing hail. That’s the case right now. My warned cell is producing penny size hail.

About an hour later the FED Is starting to pick up on longer flashes, but the event density is still showing higher values. The lines up with satellite which shows overshooting tops, but storms are overall keeping their intensity. The overall trend combined with looking at stability indices aids me in nowcasting that storms will at least maintain their strength over the next hour or so.

The Day Land Cloud convection RGB was helpful in analyzing different cloud tops. The color scale highlighted the thin cirrus compared to the lower thick clouds. It also dipicted the outflow boundary from our southern storms very well. It gives much more detail to the cloud types compared to the visible satellite.

Today I also got the chance to analyze and compare the merged TPW precipital water with the allsky.

During the afternoon the PW values stayed fairly steady across the northern half of the state while moisture increased in southern Illinois.

The TPW decreased PWATS to close to 1 inch as storms moved through. T

That data was sampled in a cloudy environment.

Meanwhile, the AllSky does show a decrease in PWATS but’s farther north compared to what actually happened. That data was pulled from the GFS since it was in a cloudy location. It was helpful to see how each product performed in this environment. It’s nice to have access to both in order to see which one has the best handle of the current atmosphere. That initialization helps me monitor trends and nowcast.

As storms moved south out of my DMA I used Day convection RGB just to monitor growing cells. It was clear to see the strongest storms because they had the bright yellow maxes.

Earlier in the day was able to compare NMDA with the low level azshear. Tornadoes were’t a major threat, but the NMDA did line up with peak areas of Azshear. That storm did produce wind damage, and strong wind gusts.

Taylor Johnson.

Storm Merger

A storm merger was about to occur around 2200z in eastern MN as a northeastward moving reflectivity tag was moving toward the larger likely severe thunderstorm.  By 2206z after the merger occurred, the azimuthal shear sharply increased in the 3-6km layer, and radar velocity also showed mid-level rotation (not shown).  By 2212z, the azimuthal shear sharply increased in the 0-2km layer, with the low-level velocity (not shown) transitioning to covergent then rotational.

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All Sky LAP CAPE and NUCAPS forecast contrast

A vigorous line of storms was moving into the NW corner of the ARX CWA prior to 23z.  The All Sky LAP CAPE showed decreasing values (~1100 J/kg) heading into this region.  In contrast, the NUCAPS forecast (un-interpolated image shown) depicted values of ~3000-4000 J/kg.  Based on the initial behavior of the storms, the higher instability values in the NUCAPS appear to have better verification.

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McLeod Co., MN Hail

The public reported golf ball size hail 1 SW of Silver Lake in McLeod Co. at 348 pm CDT.  At this time, ProbSevere depicted 99% for severe hail, and there was a ZDR minimum within the core of the storm, and the hydro class showed giant hail as the precip type ( not shown).

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Error message I get at my WFO on ProbSevere

Pops up as a red banner and ProbSevere disabled.


Paint error: null:: The resource [NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere Model (%)] has been Paint error: null:: The resource [NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere Model (%)] has been disabled.
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at com.raytheon.uf.viz.core.maps.display.MapRenderableDisplay.paint(
at com.raytheon.viz.ui.panes.VizDisplayPane.glDrawInternal(
at com.raytheon.viz.ui.panes.VizDisplayPane.draw(
at com.raytheon.viz.ui.panes.DrawCoordinatedPane.draw(
at com.raytheon.viz.ui.panes.DrawCoordinatorJob$
at org.eclipse.ui.internal.UILockListener.doPendingWork(
at org.eclipse.ui.internal.UISynchronizer$
at org.eclipse.swt.widgets.Synchronizer.runAsyncMessages(
at org.eclipse.swt.widgets.Display.runAsyncMessages(
at org.eclipse.swt.widgets.Display.readAndDispatch(
at org.eclipse.e4.ui.internal.workbench.swt.PartRenderingEngine$
at org.eclipse.core.databinding.observable.Realm.runWithDefault(
at org.eclipse.e4.ui.internal.workbench.E4Workbench.createAndRunUI(
at org.eclipse.ui.internal.Workbench$
at org.eclipse.core.databinding.observable.Realm.runWithDefault(
at org.eclipse.ui.internal.Workbench.createAndRunWorkbench(
at org.eclipse.ui.PlatformUI.createAndRunWorkbench(
at com.raytheon.uf.viz.personalities.cave.component.CAVEApplication.startComponent(
at com.raytheon.uf.viz.application.VizApplication.start(
at org.eclipse.core.runtime.internal.adaptor.EclipseAppLauncher.runApplication(
at org.eclipse.core.runtime.internal.adaptor.EclipseAppLauncher.start(
at sun.reflect.NativeMethodAccessorImpl.invoke0(Native Method)
at sun.reflect.NativeMethodAccessorImpl.invoke(
at sun.reflect.DelegatingMethodAccessorImpl.invoke(
at java.lang.reflect.Method.invoke(
at org.eclipse.equinox.launcher.Main.invokeFramework(
at org.eclipse.equinox.launcher.Main.basicRun(
at org.eclipse.equinox.launcher.Main.main(
Caused by: java.lang.NullPointerException
at edu.wisc.ssec.cimss.common.dataplugin.probsevere.ProbSevereRecord.getPolyGeoms(
at edu.wisc.ssec.cimss.viz.probsevere.rsc.ProbSevereResource.paintInternal(
at com.raytheon.uf.viz.core.rsc.AbstractVizResource.paint(
at com.raytheon.uf.viz.core.drawables.AbstractRenderableDisplay.paintResource(
… 35 more

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NUCAPS All Sky LAPS contrast

A modified NUCAPS sounding depicted a LI of -3 in the wake of the convection in the NW corner of the MPX CWA.  This is within an area of more cloudiness and the All Sky LAP derived product is using GFS in this area, and shows a more unstable environment with a LI of -7.

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Perhaps tornadogenesis soon?

Lightning on FED starting to go up again, right as cell with rotation starts to meet up with east-west oriented boundary to the east of that cell (see bottom right spectrum width product).

AzShear product following that rotation over time well…watching for increase in intensity there.