ProbSvr V3 ProbTor

The LaCrosse office was busy today with multiple storms that exhibited rotation. ProbSvr/ProbTor was helpful in the case of situational awareness and triaging the storms. Below is an example of a case where ProbTor decreased significantly over a period of a few minutes. In this case, ProTor slowly increases over a 10-15 minutes as the storm exhibits some rotation. A lightning jump was also noted with the peak probabilities of ProbTor around 40% at 2016 UTC. All of the parameters decrease significantly over a 5-6 minute period of time by 2022 UTC (images of reflectivity and velocity are included below). The lightning decreases dramatically as seen in the chart below as does the azimuthal shear (based on the chart and 0.5 velocity). A severe was already out for this storm and ProbSvr remained high throughout much of the lifecycle of the storm. As the warning forecaster, it was nice to see the confirmation of the lower probabilities. A severe warning was already out and the storm was covered for those threats. It was nice to have the confirmation from ProbTor to turn my attention to other storms that may need a warning or be on the verge of warning issuance.

2016 UTC 0.5 Reflectivity

2016 UTC 0.5 Velocity

2022 UTC 0.5 Reflectivity

2022 UTC 0.5 Velocity.

– Marty McFly